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Which teams have already beaten full 2018 expectations?

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Did you bet on college football win totals? Check your status here.

Each year, Las Vegas posts prop bets for college football teams’ over/under win totals. Most will take quite a while to decide, as Vegas is quite good and wagers often come down to the final games of the season.

But so far this year, one team has already surpassed their number, plus a number of others are knocking on the door. Checking results against the Vegas expectation is a good lens of perspective through which to view the season’s results to date.

Winners

Congrats to Cincinnati! The Bearcats won their sixth game Saturday, getting them over their preseason total of five. UC could be in contention for the American title and perhaps even double-digit wins. The Bearcats have done it with defense, including the No. 1 marginal efficiency defense in all of college football.

And congrats to Colorado! The Buffs have a Top-35 offense by S&P+, and the highest completion percentage in the nation! Vegas thought they’d win four or five, and they hit their over in the first week in October.

Previously: Hawaii.

Next in the win column?

Kentucky could be next to join the club. The Wildcats are at five wins, and need six to make it. Their next game is October 20, hosting Vanderbilt.

Losers

No team has hit its under yet, but there are a few who are in rough shape, including Arizona, Arkansas, Nebraska, Florida State, Louisville, and UCLA.

Canceled (unless a makeup game is scheduled)

Due to nasty weather and public safety concerns, games are sometimes cancelled. While rules vary from casino to casino on what happens next, the odds I am using are from 5Dimes, whose house rules state that 12 games must be played, or otherwise the bet is canceled.

This year, Akron, Appalachian State, Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, NC State, North Carolina, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia are trending in the direction of a cancelation unless a makeup game is scheduled.

Below are the numbers for all 130 teams

Odds are from 5Dimes Casino as of late August. This chart will be updated weekly. I have added a trend in instances where there is an obvious result coming.

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