How has GSW Fared in Incorrect Calls in Last Two Minutes?

Overall, NBA referees have done well in the last two minutes of the close games and following overtimes that NBA has reviewed and published. As reported by Russel Goldberg in The Pudding updated March 31, 2018, "Since March 2015, the NBA has reviewed 25,765 plays from 1,426 games. In those 4,162 minutes of action, the officials have missed or incorrectly called 2,141 plays, or about 8.3% of all calls reviewed. This amounts to 1.50 wrong decisions in the final minutes of each close game." This breaks out to averaging 0.514 mistakes per minute or each team disadvantaged 0.277 times per minute on average.

I used the incorrect calls or missed calls reported by Russell Goldenberg as involving GSW to tabulate these mistakes that were related to GSW – favorable and unfavorable. As I count it, 44 games occurred where a mistake involved GSW occurred with a total of 116 mistakes. I estimated that these occurred over 133 game minutes. While this was 2.6 per game, it does not include games in which GSW played the last two minutes or overtime that were reviewed by the NBA but in which no mistakes involved GSW. Therefore, per game and per minute comparisons with league averages may be unsound.

Of this total of 116 mistakes involving GSW, 56 were favorable to GSW and 60 were not. This was not a large difference with 48% favorable and 52% unfavorable – hard to see any significance here.

Overwhelmingly, the mistakes involved no calls, that is, events that should have resulted in a call, but the referees did not blow their whistles. These totaled:
Favorable Incorrect No Calls _ 50
Unfavorable Incorrect No Calls 56

Only 10 incorrect calls were actually made. These totaled:
Favorable Incorrect Calls _ 6
Unfavorable Incorrect Calls 4
Here GSW actually came out ahead.

Because much discussion has occurred on GSoM concerning calls involving Stephen Curry, I also looked at mistakes involving him. Over the 44 games, 13 such mistakes were made.
Favorable to GSW when Curry at Fault 4
Unfavorable and Curry Disadvantaged 9

Since these 13 mistakes involving Curry occurred over an estimated 133 minutes, this was one Curry-related mistake per 10 game clock minutes. Of course, Curry was probably not on the court for all these minutes but probably for a substantially higher percentage of the time than during other game time.

I hesitated to extrapolate from such a small number of events involving Curry. However, I could guesstimate that games in which no mistakes involving Curry occur are rare and games with 3 mistakes may not be rare. Possibly, this is not surprising as he has the ball a substantial fraction of the time – in 2017-18, 5.1 minutes of the 19.4 minutes GSW possessed (is touching) the ball per game. [This fraction was higher in some prior years.]

Altogether, GSW was not particularly disadvantaged by mistakes during the times the NBA reviewed made and missed calls. However, a very small sample of mistakes related to Curry tilts towards the mistakes involving Curry tending towards his disadvantage.