Martin Truex Jr. may appear to be a championship lock, except there are no guarantees in NASCAR playoffs

Martin Truex Jr. leads the Cup Series standings by a sizeable margin, but that doesn’t mean he’s certain to advance past the semifinal playoff round.

When Kyle Larson’s No. 42 Chevrolet began smoking with the engine eventually expiring a short while late, it didn’t just signal the end of his race Sunday at Kansas Speedway. Also going up in smoke was any chance he had to win the 2017 Monster Energy Cup Series championship.

Larson finished 39th, a result that prevented him by nine points from being one of eight drivers to transfer into the semifinal round of NASCAR’s playoffs. His elimination was jarring. Not only because he had a 29-point cushion entering the Round 2 and would’ve advanced with merely an average day, but he also was considered a favorite to secure a berth in the four-driver championship final along with Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch.

Now, instead of 75 percent of the bracket being presumably filled, only two berths are seemingly earmarked. Of course, that assumes Truex and Busch, who are 52 and 25 points above the cut off entering the third round that begins Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, don’t fall victim to the same misfortune Larson experienced.

And that is no guarantee.

“They all say I'm a lock because I got so many playoff points,” Truex said. “I'm telling you, it's not that simple. We got to go out and perform, can't have an engine failure, can't get in a crash five laps into Martinsville. We got to focus on one race at a time and do the best job we can do, try to keep the momentum going.”

If Truex sounds pessimistic for someone with a points margin nearly equivalent to one race, it’s because he recognizes the reality of the situation. Larson’s unexpected knockout and Busch nearly suffering the same fate demonstrate how there are no certainties in the playoffs -- even under a new format where regular season excellence is rewarded in the form of bonus points that carried over into the postseason.

Behind Truex, Busch and Larson were the next two best during the 26-race regular season. And because of that sustained high performance level, Busch and Larson each appeared to have a clear path to the semifinals. Then bad luck, poor execution and missed opportunities combined to strike both down. Busch scraped his way into the next round, Larson couldn’t.

“I’m not stunned because freak things happen in every sport,” Larson said. “Most every time, at least in the new playoff format era, not always does the best team win. Not saying we are the best team, but we have been one of the contenders all season long. … We have been consistent and just now got bit.

“It just stinks, but it is what it is.”

Working in Truex’s favor is that he would need to stumble in two of three semifinal races and then have a couple bottom seeded drivers score upset wins for him to not qualify for the championship final. Such a set of circumstances occurring is doubtful, even if Busch and Larson serve as stark reminders of the possibilities that exist.

Truex owns seven victories on the year, a robust figure that’s more than any other team has combined. Next best is Joe Gibbs Racing with Busch and Denny Hamlin collecting six victories for the organization owned by the three-time Super Bowl-winning head coach. A win in any of the next three races assures Truex a spot in the title race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

All reason to have confidence that the Furniture Row Racing driver won’t fall victim to what inflicted one of his main rivals. Unmatched speed and consistency are overwhelming factors to think Truex may be immune.

Still, a couple bad races and the championship complexion suddenly changes.

“It is a long 10-race playoff season, so anything can happen,” Larson said.

Yes it can. Larson proved as much in the previous round. It’s up to Truex to prove that he won’t be the latest example.