Why trading Yu Darvish was a smart move for the Rangers

Darvish is popular, and the Rangers aren’t that far out, but they had too much to gain from trading him to not do it.

The Rangers signed Yu Darvish out of Japan back before the 2012 season. There was a real good chance he was one of the top pitchers in the entire world, and while injuries have derailed those efforts, what Texas did get was still great. Darvish posted a 125 ERA+ with the Rangers over five seasons and six years, striking out 11 batters per nine despite working his home games in a park where leaving the wrong pitch in the strike zone meant runs were going to score.

That’s all over now, as Darvish has been dealt to the Dodgers to play out the rest of his contract. It’s an obvious smart move for Los Angeles, which gets the backup for Clayton Kershaw the team has arguably needed in each of the last four seasons where they won the National League West. It’s also an intelligent move for the Rangers, even if it’s one that was difficult to make.

Texas was initially opposed to the idea of trading Darvish, as it instead wanted to hold on and wait for a run that could propel it closer to a playoff spot. Even today, as of the start of play on July 31, the Rangers sit just 5.5 games back of a wild card in the AL with two months of games left on the schedule. That difference could be made up in the right two weeks, nevermind two months, but it wasn’t going to be easy and nothing was guaranteed.

Plus, Darvish could very well leave at the end of the season, and with the new collective bargaining agreement complicating the rules for compensation, there was a chance the Rangers would lose twice: first, lose out on a playoff spot, and then, see Darvish leave for another team as a free agent, with only a pick in the 75-80 range coming back to them as compensation.

If Darvish had been a free agent this time a year ago, things would have been different in the Rangers’ minds. They would have received a first-round pick back as compensation for Darvish’s departure, and that fact would have meant serious leverage for them at the deadline, as teams would have needed to match or exceed that kind of potential in order to pry Darvish from them.

With the new CBA making free agency a bit more player-friendly than it was by removing some of the difficulties having compensation attached to a player created, that tactic was out the window.

The Rangers realized this, but they still weren’t going to give up Darvish for nothing, and they didn’t. Willie Calhoun might not have been the very best prospect the Dodgers possess, but he’s a 22-year-old who is mashing in Triple-A, with his most significant issue being his lack of a position. The Rangers are in the American League, so if the worst thing that happens here is that Calhoun becomes a DH who makes the lives of opposing pitchers terrible, then they’ve done just fine.

They didn’t only get Calhoun, too. They also acquired A.J. Alexy and Brendon Davis. Alexy is a 19-year-old in Low-A who has struck out 10.5 batters per nine as a starter. While he’s also walked far too many batters, the whiffs, the youth, and the potential for a plus curveball make those walks tolerable for now. He could very well grow out of them as he learns some control on his move up the ladder, as more advanced opponents can sometimes force that education on a pitcher.

As for Davis, he’s also 19, and toolsy. He hasn’t succeeded in the same way Alexy has, but he’s 6’4 and waiting to add the size that comes with that frame in your 20s. When he does, he could look like a very different player than he does today.

The Rangers would have received just one compensation player, one after the second round had concluded, if they held on to Darvish. Instead, they sold off a two-month rental to the Dodgers, and added a legitimate bat who is a step away from the majors, plus two potential future pieces with ceilings worth noticing.

And that might not even be the best part, because the Rangers can sign Darvish back — and that’s also reportedly their plan. This isn’t a Jon Lester and the Red Sox situation, where Darvish was disgusted by low-ball offers and was always going to be gone whether he was traded or not. Darvish has expressed a desire to stay in Texas, and when he has the chance to do so, Texas is going to have Willie Calhoun in it. There won’t be any compensation necessary for re-signing Darvish, as he was traded midseason and is ineligible for that status, so the Rangers can call up him when free agency begins and negotiate with him, just like they would have if they had held onto him.

The difference is that now when they do it, they’ll also have Calhoun, Alexy, and Davis in the organization. Picking up a trio of prospects with potential and still having a chance at Darvish is worth more than what two months of negotiating before free agency was going to get the Rangers, especially given that there was almost no chance he would have avoided free agency when he was this close to it.

And, if Darvish does go elsewhere, it’s something he might have done even if the Rangers had held onto him. The difference now, the guarantee now, is that they have already acquired three pieces for their future, regardless of what Darvish does. The rest is now a bonus.

The Dodgers did well to add Darvish, but the Rangers did well in parting with him, too. And if they manage to get him back for 2018 and beyond, then that sentiment will only ring more true.