American League Predictions
The season is about to begin and with it comes everyone’s opinion on how their team will perform. Given this, I thought I would add my own input. The following are power rankings based on a projection system I created using projected team WAR (from Fangraphs combination of ZiPS and STEAMER).
The American League Top 5 Power Rankings:
1. Cleveland Indians: 94-68
The Big Story: Better than 2016?
No surprise here with the Indians sitting atop the AL standings, after forcing the Cubs to extra innings of game 7 in last year’s World Series. The question this year though is if they will be able to win it. They have a target on their back that they didn’t have last year, but if they can handle the pressure they might be even better after signing Edwin Encarnacion this offseason and having a full season of Andrew Miller.
The Dark Horses: 2016 DL: Carrasco, Salazar, Brantley
Everyone knows these guys are good so they aren’t really dark horses, but I feel like it wasn’t discussed as much as it should have been last year that this team almost won the World Series without either of these pitchers starting in the postseason, and their best hitter playing in only 11 games the whole year. With these three healthy it should give them a big leg up in 2017.
2. Houston Astros: 90-72
The Big Story: Can Dallas Keuchel lead the pitching staff?
Dallas Keuchel struggled last season and the team needs him to regain his 2015 form if they want to make a run at the World Series. It appears the biggest reason for his troubles last season was his GB% dropping. Although most pitchers have a higher batting average against on grounders than fly balls, Keuchel has fared much better on ground balls during his career. Hitters have only a .214 average against him on grounders compared to a .273 average and .829 slugging % on flyballs. Not to mention his career HR/FB rate of 14.5% (10% is league average). Given this it is concerning to see his GB% dropping. If Keuchel can fix this then he should be able to return to form as he did improve as the season went on last year (4.80 ERA first half, 3.94 second) and his 3.87 season FIP showed he experienced some bad luck.
The Dark Horse: Lance McCullers
This guy is not only an underrated ace of the staff, but he may be a dark horse for the CY Young this year. In 36 major league starts he has a 3.22 ERA and a 10.23 K/9. He also has a .194 slugging % against his curveball, which he threw about 50% last year. If Keuchel struggles again in 2017, this guy will lead the team.
3. Boston Red Sox: 90-72
The Big Story(ies): No more Big Papi and the Big 3
Big Papi’s retirement takes an integral piece away from the Red Sox lineup, and replacing him with Mitch Moreland’s below average offensive numbers over three of the last four seasons is not ideal. That being said this lineup should still be one of the best in baseball, being led by last year’s MVP runner-up, Mookie Betts, along with a great balance of young stars and veterans.
Another big story will be the three guys at the top of the rotation. Porcello and Price both struggled when first coming to Boston so Sale may have some trouble adjusting at first. But Porcello broke out in his second year and Price pitched much better in the second half, so at some point these three should all be at the top of their game, and when they are, this will be the best rotation in baseball.
The Dark Horse: Pablo Sandoval
Pablo Sandoval was terrible in 2015 during his first year with the Red Sox and injured all of last year. But the two time all-star is still only 30 and lost a ton of weight this offseason so you never know.
4. The Blue Jays: 85-77
The Big Story: Free Agency
The Blue Jays lost a couple of big bats to free agency this offseason in Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders. They were able to bring back Bautista, sign Morales to replace Encarnacion, and get Steve Pearce to replace Saunders, but will this be enough to keep them as one of the most powerful teams in the majors? With Donaldson, Tulowitzki, and Russell Martin they should still be one of the top 10 teams in home runs.
The Dark Horse: Francisco Liriano
This is a talented rotation, but Liriano should be the team’s number two starter. From 2013-2015 he never had an ERA over 3.38 or an OPS against over .558. In 2016 those numbers jumped to a 5.46 ERA and .814 OPS through the end of July. After being traded to Toronto though his numbers mirrored those from the previous years as he posted a 2.92 ERA and .607 OPS against. A big reason for this was due to decreasing his BB/9 from 5.5 to 2.9 as well as being back with Russell Martin who took him from a starter with a 5.34 ERA in 2012 to one with a 3.04 ERA in 2013. Given he’s back with Martin in 2017, Liriano should be expected to have a strong season.
5. Seattle Mariners: 84-78
The Big Story: Felix Hernandez
Like the Astros, Seattle needs their ace to get back into form. In 2015 he started struggling in the second half (2.84 first half ERA vs 4.48 second half) and last year, continued that trend (2.86 vs 4.48). The reason for his second half struggles last season were his K-BB ratio being only about half his career average (3.0 career vs 1.8 in the second half of 2016), his ground ball % dropping by 6%, and his average fastball being over 3 mph slower. He even got lucky having a low BABIP, meaning his ERA actually should have been slightly higher. All of these are concerning signs and if the Mariners want to win the Wild Card game they will need Hernandez to be an ace again.
The Dark Horse: Jarrod Dyson
Dyson has always been considered more of a fourth outfielder who goes into a game as a late defensive replacement, but he really should be starting. In the last three seasons Dyson has averaged a 5.27 WAR over 1,350 innings (9 innings over 150 games). That’s better than any other player on the Mariners and ranks around 10th in all of baseball, right ahead of his other undervalued teammate Kyle Seager. If this guy is given the chance to play every day he should be able to put up some pretty incredible numbers defensive and on the bases.
The following shows the full projected standings for the AL in 2017. (The green highlight marks the teams that are projected to win the division. The yellow marks those that are projected to win a wild card spot.)
Standings