Early Season Hitting Evaluations

Some red flags:

Rajai Davis - Rajai has the highest swing % among A's regulars, so he needs a high BABIP to provide value. So far, his hard hit %, Line drive %, and infield hit (IH) % are all down a few points which has resulted in a .212 BABIP, well below his career .313 mark. He's going to need to either swing at fewer pitches outside of the zone (37% oswing with 30% being league avg), make better contact, or both.

Trevor Plouffe - Warning! Warning! As you would expect for a struggling hitter, Plouffe has chased pitches outside of the zone at about 7% over his career avg so far. What's more troubling is that his contact % of pitches in the zone is at an alarming 70.5%, far below his career 87% and the league avg of 86%. Zone contact % is a stat that stabilizes relatively quickly so this is likely more than early season variance. Consequently, his K% is way up, and the only thing saving him so far is an unsustainably high hard hit rate. He's also at a 63% groundball rate which is not good.

Don't panic yet:

Matt Joyce - While his numbers so far are bad, it appears to be that it's more to do with bad luck so far. Out of the 200 players who have had 40 PA so far in 2017, Joyce ranks 2nd best in swinging at the fewest pitches outside of the zone. His plate disclipline continues to be elite. Further, his hard hit rate is at 40%, which is well above avg, so his early season low BABIP is unlucky. His peripherals are just as good as the Pittsburgh Matt Joyce of last year and much better than the Angels Matt Joyce of 2015.

Ryon Healy - Healy has had a tough time with fastballs up and breaking balls down out of the zone (o-zone) this season. His o-zone contact is at 47% so far and his o-zone swing rate is slightly above avg. This has resulted in the higher K totals. Still, his hard hit rate and contact in the zone is above what he did last season, so he should be fine. His zone contact % is excellent for a power hitter. Plate discipline is the skill he needs to improve in order to become one of the better hitters in the league.

Holding steady:

Stephen Vogt - He has really good contact skills in and out of the zone. The problem is his o-zone swing % has continued to trend up over the past couple of seasons, resulting in lower BB rates and weaker contact/lower BABIP. Pitch selectivity is the key for him going forward.

Marcus Semien - His batted ball profile is slightly down, but when considering the wrist issue, that is understandable. It should be noted that it appears his big bump in BB rate should be attributed to random variance rather than improved plate discipline. His o-zone swing and overall swing % is actually a few points above his career avg. Pitchers are simply having trouble throwing strikes against him this season.

Good early signs:

Jed Lowrie - He is healthy and contributing above his career averages so far this season. His plate discipline is among the league's best, his contact rates are up, and he's hitting the ball harder than usual so far. Infield hit % is at 0 so far, which has suppressed his BABIP a bit.

Yonder Alonso - His new approach has improved his numbers across the board. His fly ball % is at 48%(!), which is significantly higher than his 33% career avg. His plate discipline is also much improved as his o-zone swing rate is 5% better this season. He's hitting the ball harder, at better launch angles, and swinging at the right pitches. The only blemish is that his zone contact % of 83 is well below his 92% career rate. This has resulted in a nearly 7% increase in K percentage, but he's still at an acceptable 21%.

Khris Davis - He is killing it obviously. Plate discipline is better also. He's simply been locked in.

Once exit velocity numbers come out, we should know more but hopefully this is a useful early season update.