The Truth About Rockies Pitching

It’s usually right around this time of year that baseball fans start to draw some conclusions.  Of course, for some fans – often the most, let’s say… “passionate” fans – an 0-for-20 or four-game losing streak in April is enough for him or her to write off a player or team for the season.  Others stay agnostic until the bitter end. But, statistically speaking, by the time we turn the calendar to June, most players have logged enough time for a significant number of their performance indicators to be meaningful.  In sabermetrics, we sometimes hear this referred to as the “stabilization point.”  Put simply, it means that the sample size has become large enough that majority of the variation of a statistic going forward is predictable based on what’s happened so far.  Again: the majority; 50% plus a smidge.  That leaves a lot of room for all kinds of weird, unforeseeable things to happen.  You know, the fun stuff.  And the numbers can’t account for changes in a player’s true talent level.  Players do get better and worse, after all, even if less often than we’re often fooled into believing because of an isolated run of success or failure that [...]

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