Making Sense of the Mets’ Offseason

Now that the Mets are putting the finishing touches on their offseason, we can turn our attention to how they built this team and what trends have emerged in retrospect. While the offseason is not yet over, the Mets have definitely gone through the entirety of the checklist they had coming into it. The Mets took their time, were methodical, and put together a complete team, albeit a very different one from what they’ve had the past few seasons. Adding an ace, almost complete retooling the lineup, as well as key backend relievers.

One trend that has emerged and may have taken many by surprise was the Mets’ willingness to move players to positions they have little to no experience at. This also directly counters what David Stearns had preached earlier in the offseason, about getting stronger defensively. At first glance, bringing in both Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco, who were bad defenders last year according to both OAA and FRV, does not jibe with improvement. Yet the team also acquired Luis Robert Jr. and Marcus Semien, both stellar defenders and gold glove winners.

Making sense of this divergence should be examined in two ways: the importance of up-the-middle defense. The acquisitions of Robert Jr. and Semien have significantly improved this area. The Mets, who already had an elite defender at shortstop, now have five Gold Glove winners up the middle.

The second way to look at this is through the addition of Kai Correa to the team’s coaching staff. His prowess as an infield coach not only makes him extremely well regarded, he has also consistently improved both team and player defensive metrics. Most notable being former Met infielder J.D. Davis, who’d always been a below-average third baseman. Playing under Correa’s tutelage in San Francisco, he finished top six in FRV and OAA and was well above average. Correa’s infields consistently rank in the top portion of fielding metrics and individual improvements are sometimes stark departures from previous levels.

Whether via positioning, drills, footwork, or strength and conditioning, Correa has had success with far less likely candidates for improvement than Bichette and Polanco. Each of whom has had seasons of above-average defensive play at tougher positions. The fact that both are moving to less strenuous positions, at least athletically speaking, bodes very well for their abilities to learn from Correa’s heralded instruction.  Their character, too, speaks to players who take very well to coaching, as both have shown marked improvements at various skills throughout their careers.

Another important departure from the previous Mets calibration is a likely more varied and balanced approach. Spreading out Alonso’s power production by acquiring Semien and Robert, in addition to Polanco, adds significant length to the lineup. Mitigating the loss of Alonso’s power, not by replacing him with a single individual, but by having many more hitters with above-average power production. The lineup is also projected to strike out less, as well as hit more singles and doubles.

The Mets’ approach went beyond enhancing individual skills; it centered on correcting the roster’s most consequential weaknesses. By resolving many of the shortcomings that defined last season, they also added impact strengths in the process: Robert’s speed and defense, Semien’s fielding, and Bichette’s contact-oriented bat.

Bichette is one of the most unique hitters in baseball today. The vast majority of hitters who hit the ball to the opposite field and up the middle, ot the extent Bichette does, are what most would consider slap hitters. The image of Juan Pierre, Tony Womack, or a more contemporary player like Chandler Simpson comes to mind. Players whose game focuses on limiting strikeouts, putting the ball in play and speed. Bichette, on the other hand, while he hit the 9th most non-pulled balls in play, had by far the highest hard hit rate out of anyone in the top 15 non-pull-oriented hitters.

Yet Bichette’s top-shelf hard hit rate to his non-pull fields isn’t his only selling point. Some less noteworthy players like Alec Bohm and Yainer Diaz were also above the 40% hard-hit rate. They were the only other two who were remotely close to Bo’s proficiency, yet neither possesses the overall offensive game Bichette has.  Diaz has serious plate discipline concerns, as his walk rate and chase rate are both in the bottom 2% in baseball.  And Bohm’s power is a far cry from Bichette’s, whose double-heavy style of play still includes 20+ homers annually.

The other three lineup additions, Semien, Robert Jr. and Polanco all share a trait that Troy Snitker has championed with the Astros. During his tenure, the Astros were fourth in baseball in pulling air balls (linedrives & flyballs). All three of Semien, Robert Jr. and Polanco share a propensity for and a characteristic that will be certain to continue with the Mets’ new hitting philosophy.

Another hallmark of Troy Snitker’s tenure with the Astros was the team’s ability to hit for contact. They led all of baseball over his tenure in lowest K%, Swinging Strike%, and the highest Z-Contact% (percentage of in-zone contact). Semien, Bichette and Polanco were all top 5o in Z-Contact last year, which is even more impressive considering both Polanco and Bichette had above-average hard hit rates.

Across the roster, more players contribute defensively, many run well, several draw walks, and others offer both contact and power. In essence, the Mets now feature fewer everyday players with clear deficiencies. Their lineup boasts three players coming off 30-steal seasons, seven with at least 25 home runs in a year, and four who have reached 38 or more. It is also a lineup built to minimize strikeouts. Over the grind of 162 games and especially in the postseason, removing weaknesses is the foundation of consistency and lasting success.

Declining to retain Alonso or Nimmo is not a judgment on the players themselves or on what they might produce next season. Instead, it represents a calculated divestment from skill profiles that often decline over the course of costly long-term deals. Though the broader media may question whether the roster has meaningfully improved, this more varied construction is designed to raise the team’s floor and smooth out the extremes that defined prior seasons. The acquisition of Freddy Peralta both reflects and completes that vision. After a couple of seasons without a clear ace, arguably the club’s greatest weakness, the Mets now enter next season with a legitimate top-tier starter and two high-ceiling young arms who could soon join him. The result is a roster built not for flashes, but for stability, reduced volatility and sustained success.

The post Making Sense of the Mets’ Offseason appeared first on Metsmerized Online.