ZiPS Forecasts Sunny 2026 for Mets

The Mets have an “extremely solid” lineup, better starting pitching than last year and an above-average bullpen, according to ZiPS projections released Thursday on FanGraphs.

“Starting with two players, Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor make up for a lot of sins,” wrote Dan Szymborski, who developed the projection system. “But there aren’t really a lot of sins in the lineup.”

ZiPS uses statistics from the previous four years for players aged 24-38, giving more weight to more recent seasons. It also uses aging trends to make projections and is considered one of the more accurate predictors in the baseball industry.

Bo Bichette, per ZiPS, should be more valuable at third base than at shortstop. The forecast calls for rebound years from Luis Robert Jr. and Marcus Semien, a good season for Francisco Alvarez and likes the value that backup catcher Luis Torrens provides from throwing out runners.

“The DH situation isn’t amazing, with Mark Vientos getting the bulk of the plate appearances there, but only a few teams really get a ton of WAR from that spot anyway,” Szymborski wrote.

ZiPS offers three near age comps for every player. Soto’s 27-year-old comps are Rusty Staub, Carl Yastrzemski and Barry Bonds, who won the MVP at age 27. One of Lindor’s 32-year-old comps is his double-play partner in Semien, who was 32 in 2023 when he finished third in AL MVP voting for the Texas Rangers.

A few other interesting comps: Carson Benge (Bernie Williams and Andrew McCutchen), Vientos (Kevin Mitchell and Jeff Kent) and Alvarez (Todd Zeile).

“ZiPS expects the Mets’ pitching to be pretty good, giving the staff a bit of a bump from last year’s projections,” Szymborski wrote. “And that was before the trade for Peralta, who was the Brewers’ most valuable pitcher.”

Peralta, 29, is compared to Jack Morris, Bob Lemon and Chan Ho Park. Nolan McLean‘s comps are Sonny Gray, Floyd Wooldridge and Freddy Garcia. ZiPS likes many of the starters, including David Peterson, Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea, who all struggled in the second half of 2025. The projection is “less excited” for Christian Scott.

“ZiPS view the Mets as having an above-average bullpen, but one that’s below baseball’s elite,” Szymborski wrote, who added that he is concerned about Devin Williams‘ ability to come back from a poor 2025. ZiPS likes Luke Weaver and Brooks Raley, but the balance of the bullpen is “meh,” except for maybe Huascar Brazobán.

Overall, the Mets look good, a “highly competitive team in the NL East, and one the league shouldn’t dismiss.” But Szymborski also added a word of caution about projections – at least for Mets fans.

“Rooting for the Mets is existential; you go into every season with hope, but an unquenchable feeling that something will go horribly or terribly wrong,” he wrote. “Meaning as a Mets fan does not come from celebrating the team’s achievements, but the act of enduring and returning, year after year, with the knowledge that preparation offers no escape. Mets fans essentially become annotators of doomed worlds.”

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