Trade Profile: Lars Nootbaar, OF

Lars Nootbaar

Position: OF B/T: L/R

Age: 28 (9/8/1997)

2025 Traditional Stats: 583 PA, .234/.325/.361/.686, 119 H, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 64 BB, 119 SO

2025 Advanced Stats: 96 wRC+, 95 OPS+, 20.4% SO%, 11% BB%, .279 BABIP, .314 xwOBA, 5.0 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR

Contract Status: Free agent after 2027

Typically, ‘double heel surgery’ is not the first thing you want to see when you research a player, but that was the surgery outfielder Lars Nootbaar had in October 2025 following his worst season. The procedure addressed Haglund’s deformities on both heels, where the Achilles tendon attaches. These bone growths cause pain and irritation that impact running and jumping – two things very prevalent in playing baseball. Cardinals president of baseball Operations Chaim Bloom revealed on KMOX Sports that Nootbaar could miss opening day, but if he does miss time at the start of the season, the time missed would be limited.

Baseball precedent is limited. Yoenis Cespedes underwent the surgery in 2018 at age 32, but other complications, including a boar attack that derailed his career, so we never got to see how the surgery impacted his career. A 2022 medical study found 94% of patients regained their previous activity level post-surgery.

Without clear baseball examples, it’s difficult to predict Nootbaar’s recovery. However, at roughly 11 weeks post-surgery, he should be close to resuming baseball activities, giving teams clarity on what his return may look like.

Early Career

Nootbaar debuted in 2021 for the Cardinals and after a slow start picked things up in the second half, slashing .265/.337/.482/.819 across his final 46 games. His hitting coach at the time was recently promoted to Mets director of hitting development Jeff Albert.

Across 334 games from 2022-2024, Nootbaar slashed .246/.351/.426/.777 with 40 HRs, 131 RBIs, and 22 SBs. He battled an assortment of injuries, including back issues, an oblique issue, rib injuries, and a hamstring injury. To date, he has never played more than 135 games in a season. But while on the field he has typically provided above-average outfield defense and a bat 14-23% above average by WRC+.

Current Run

2025 was Nootbaar’s worst season in terms of results. He started hot with a .263/.400/.439 slash in March and April, but tailed off as the season went on. In September and October, he slashed .183/.256/.244 leading into his surgery.

Under the hood there was a lot more to like.

Per Statcast:

• 87^th percentile in chase rate (22%)
• 87^th percentile in hard hit rate (50%)
• 80^th percentile in walk rate (11%)
• 79^th percentile in average exit velocity (91.3 MPH)
• 79^th percentile in squared up rate (29%)
• 76^th percentile in zone contact rate (87%)
• 73^rd percentile in whiff rate (20.9%)
• 68^th percentile in max exit velocity (113 MPH)
• 66^th percentile in 90^th exit velocity (106.1 MPH)
• 68^th percentile in bat speed (73.4 MPH)
• 60^th percentile in barrel rate (10.2%)

His biggest issues are that he does not pull the ball in the air a lot at 13.2% (38^th percentile) and his LA sweet spot% of 33% is in the 29^th percentile. Overall, even though the results have not lined up as such, Nootbaar’s bat has profiled very similarly to Brandon Nimmo through the same age. Their contact rates, selectivity, exit velocities, pull rates, and swing and miss profile through their age 28 seasons are very close to each other per Robert Orr.

So why would the Mets want a player coming off his worst season in terms of results that just got double heel surgery?

Nootbaar’s under-the-hood data screams of a candidate prime for a breakout with the right hitting coach. A hitting coach who can help him lift the ball more and take advantage of his bat speed to pull the ball at a higher rate. Coaches who can maximize his power output. Coaches like Troy Snitker and Jeff Albert of the New York Mets have a long track record of being able to do just that.

There are no guarantees in life, but if Nootbaar returns from injury playing as he did before and the Mets coaches are able to optimize his skill set, he may project similarly to Brandon Nimmo but with better defense. Even replicating his 2022-2024 slash of .246/.351/.425 with good outfield defense would greatly raise the floor of the 2026 Mets.

Trade Package

It is hard to project how much Nootbaar’s surgery will impact his value on the trade market, or if it will at all. The outfield market is very slim, and if his evaluations in his rehabilitation go well it may not impact it at all.

I am proposing the Mets trade:

Cardinals receive:

• Outfielder and First Baseman Ryan Clifford
• Infielder Simon Juan

Mets receive:

• Outfielder Lars Nootbaar

Recommendation

After seeing his contact rates skyrocket back up in 2025, Ryan Clifford looks poised to gain back top 100 prospect status so parting with him may seem like a lot for Lars Nootbaar. But the combination of ceiling and floor Nootbaar brings in conjunction with the current weak outfield market could raise the price teams are willing to pay. This trade package would give the Cardinals a potential player to replace either Nootbaar in the outfield or Willson Contreras at first base going into 2026 as well as a future potential infielder.

With two years of control, Nootbaar could be a stabilizing force in the outfield. If the Mets are unable to sign Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger, Nootbaar could be the perfect under-the-radar addition to stabilize the Mets outfield in 2026 and 2027.

The post Trade Profile: Lars Nootbaar, OF appeared first on Metsmerized Online.