Trade Profile: Kris Bubic, SP

Kris Bubic, SP

Position: SP B/T: L/L

Age: 28 (08/19/1997)

2025 Traditional Stats: 20 G, 116.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 116 SO, 39 BB

2025 Advanced Stats: 161 ERA+, 24.4 K%, 8.2 BB%, 3.15 xERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR

While the Kansas City Royals are coming off back-to-back winning seasons and have the best shortstop in baseball under contract for another five years, they still need offense. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering that over the last two seasons the only Royal outside of Bobby Witt Jr. to post an OPS beginning with an eight was Maikel Garcia, who finished 2025 with exactly an .800 OPS.

With the Royals boasting four strong arms (Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Cameron) all under contract for at least two more seasons, plus several young pitchers vying for the fifth spot, they have room to trade from their surplus of rotation options. Enter: Kris Bubic, who sits just one year away from free agency.

Early Career

Kris Bubic’s career thus far has been anything but linear. Originally a Royals 2018 first-round pick out of Stanford, Bubic broke out during his first full season as a professional in 2019. After dominating the South Atlantic League for a couple of months, he continued to excel following a promotion to High-A over the remainder of the season. Overall, he pitched to a 2.23 ERA with a 0.971 WHIP and 185 strikeouts over 149 and ⅓ innings pitched and began gaining momentum on top-prospect boards. 

Unfortunately for Bubic, that momentum was short-lived. Bubic earned a spot in the rotation during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and over the following three seasons compiled a 4.89 ERA and 1.541 WHIP over 309 innings. However, and stop me if you’ve heard this before, after getting off to a solid start in 2023, the lefty underwent Tommy John surgery ending his season. 

Current Run

Making his return in early July 2024, Bubic was pitching like a changed man in both performance and his usage. Coming out of the bullpen full-time for the first time in his career, the lefty excelled over the remaining three months of the season. Across 30 1/3 innings, Bubic had a 2.67 ERA, 1.022 WHIP, and a 11.6 K/9 rate. 

Leveraging his newfound success into the 2025 starting rotation, Bubic did not disappoint. In his first All-Star campaign, Bubic delivered a 2.48 ERA, 1.160 WHIP, and 9.4 K/9 rate across 18 first-half outings. Unfortunately, after just his second start following the All-Star break, he suffered a rotator cuff strain and was forced to miss the remainder of the season. 

While his injury history will naturally concern potential trade partners, Bubic did demonstrated that his breakout was legitimate. In 2025, he ranked in the 70th percentile or better in several key metrics:

• xERA (84th)
• xBA (73rd)
• Avg Exit Velo (87th)
• Chase % (89th)
• Whiff % (76th)
• Barrel % (78th)
• GB % (71st)
• Extension (85th)

One aspect that may be particularly appealing to the Mets is Bubic’s ability to work deep into games. Of his 20 starts in 2025, he completed at least six innings 11 times, and notably completed the seventh inning in six of those outings. Given the Mets’ bullpen struggles late in 2025, much of which stemmed from starters consistently failing to pitch past the fifth inning, this skill set carries added value.

To put that into perspective, outside of workhorse David Peterson, the Mets received just 15 starts from their projected rotation members in 2025 (Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas), where they finished the sixth inning. Even more concerning, only two of those starts (both from Holmes) occurred after June 8. 

Trade Package

So what does Bubic’s trade value look like right now? His 2025 performance is undoubtedly the biggest selling point. However, his injury history and single remaining year of control significantly cap the type of return he’s likely to command. Additionally, as impressive as his 2025 campaign was, it still represents less than a full season of success.

Beyond that, the Royals are looking for offense, but from where? A look at the roster suggests the outfield as their most pressing need. That assessment is further supported by MLB Pipeline, which lists no outfield prospects above Low-A within the organization’s top 15.

Mets Receive 

• LHP Kris Bubic

Royals Receive

• OF Nick Morabito
• INF Ronny Mauricio
• RHP R.J. Gordon

This deal could work because Morabito realistically can begin the season in Triple-A, Mauricio can slot all over the infield due to injury or underperformance and Gordon would give Kansas City an intriguing pitching prospect who struck out 147 batters over 128 2/3 innings and 26 appearances (21 starts) between High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton in 2025. 

Recommendation

The Mets don’t seem like the best trade partner given the Royals’ most pressing roster needs. While this deal could work in theory, it’s not difficult to imagine this offer getting beat. However, depending on the Royals’ ask, Bubic does seem like a pitcher the Mets should kick the tires on.

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