Trade Profile: Tarik Skubal, SP

Early Career

After spending three years pitching for the Seattle University Redhawks, Skubal was drafted by the Tigers in the ninth round of the 2018 MLB Draft. Skubal first made his mark as a professional in 2019, splitting his time between the High-A Lakeland Flying Tigers and the Double-A Erie SeaWolves. Over 24 starts and 122 and ⅔ innings pitched, Skubal dominated to the tune of a 2.42 ERA, 1.011 WHIP, and a 13.1 K/9 rate.

After two middling years in 2020 and 2021, Skubal showed real potential in 2022, but an elbow injury in August required flexor tendon surgery. The procedure would knock him out until the summer of 2023, where, after a brief re-acclimation period, Skubal finally flashed brilliance. Over five starts in September, he dominated with a 0.90 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, and a 12.9 K/9 rate.

Current Run

Skubal won his second consecutive Cy Young in 2025, putting the southpaw in elite company. He’s on the precipice of etching his name in the pantheon of historic runs with the potential to extend his dominance into 2026. Since Skubal’s last reported extension offer from the Tigers, he’s  raised his value exponentially. Winning his second Cy Young Award in a row, Skubal led the AL in WAR, ERA, and WHIP.

As expected, his 2025 Baseball Savant page looks like a scene out of the movie Saw. He ranks in the 94th percentile or greater in:

• xERA (95th percentile)
• Average Exit Velocity (97th percentile, 86.1 mph)
• Chase Rate (97th percentile, 35.1%)
• Strikeout Rate (94th percentile)
• Walk Rate (97th percentile)
• Hard-Hit Rate (95th percentile, 33.0%)
• wOBA (95th percentile, .245)
• xwOBA (95th percentile, .257)

Trade Package

Given his age, rental status, and dominance over the last two years, Skubal’s trade value is difficult to compare historically. But let’s attempt a framework.

As a floor, the David Price trade to Toronto in 2015 seems like a safe bet. That trade netted the Tigers (deja vu) a top-30 prospect (Daniel Norris) in addition to two well-regarded pitching prospects. As for a ceiling, the Chris Sale trade to Boston in 2016 is fair, with Chicago receiving four prospects, including two in the top 20 in baseball (Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech).

Another factor to keep in mind is where the Tigers team currently stands roster-wise and with their farm system. Both of which send a clear message: they need pitching. In 2025, Detroit ranked 11th in the league in fWAR among position players and 17th in fWAR among pitchers. If you take out Skubal’s large chunk, their rank plummets into a tie with the Athletics for 27th in baseball. Checking in with the Tigers’ farm system paints a similar picture. Of MLB Pipeline’s mid-2025 top-100 prospects, the Tigers have four, all position players, ranked within the top 40:

• SS Kevin McGonigle (Double-A) – No. 2 overall
• OF Max Clark (Double-A) – No. 8 overall
• 1B/C Josue Briceno (Double-A) – No. 33 overall
• SS Bryce Rainer (Low-A) – No. 37 overall

If the Tigers move Skubal this offseason, it’s safe to say they’ll be looking for a pitching heavy package. Hence this proposal:

Mets Receive:

• LHP Tarik Skubal

Tigers Receive:

• RHP Kodai Senga
• RHP Jonah Tong – No. 46 overall, Mets’ No. 4 prospect
• RHP Jack Wenninger – Mets’ No. 13 prospect
• RHP Jonathan Pintaro – Mets’ No. 17 prospect

With this package, the Tigers get an established starter with a high ceiling and two years remaining on his contract, in Senga, to slot into their rotation immediately. But more importantly, they will get three prospects who could contribute at the MLB level as soon as 2026 in their rotation and bullpen.

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