FREE AGENT PROFILE: LUIS ARRÁEZ, IF
LUIS ARRÁEZ, IF
Position: IF B/T: L/R
Player Data: Age: 28 (4/9/1997)
2025 Traditional Stats: 675 PA, .292/.327/.392/.719, 181 H, 8 HR, 61 RBI
2025 Advanced Stats: 109 wRC+, 3.1% K%, 3.6% BB%, .289 BABiP, .300 xwOBA, 0.9 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR, 3 DRS (1B), -2 DRS (2B), -6 OAA (1B), -1 OAA (2B)
RUNDOWN
Three-time batting title holder Luis Arráez may be one of the most polarizing players in baseball. He has been hailed as the second coming of Tony Gwynn, but he has also been called an overrated slap hitter. The truth likely lies somewhere in between.
Arraez has been rated an above-average hitter by WRC+ every season of his career, but has only been considered an above-average overall player by fWAR twice and bWAR three times. This is because he is very limited defensively and on the base paths. He has been rated as a below-average baserunner every season since he was a rookie by FanGraphs’ baserunning value at negative-4. He spent most of the last season at either first base or the designated hitter spot because of his defensive limitations, though he did work in at second base in fourteen games. With these limitations, there is even more pressure on his bat.
From a pure hit tool standpoint, there may not be anyone better at making contact than Luis Arraez. Last year he was in the 100th percentile in zone contact at 96.4%, the 99th percentile in whiff rate at 4.8%, and the 99th percentile in K% at 3.1%. Since his debut, he leads all hitters in batting average at .317. He ranks 16th in OBP between Alex Bregman and Ketel Marte.
By WRC+, Arráez ranks 72nd since his debut with a career 117 WRC+. Across the same time period, this puts him between Bryan Reynolds and Luke Voit. He also ranks 210th in SLG between Tyrone Taylor and Daniel Vogelbach.
Luis Arraez last year ranked in the first percentile in hard-hit rate at 18.9%, second percentile in barre rate at 1.1%, seventh percentile in average exit velocity at 84.7 MPH, seventh percentile in max exit velocity at 107.8 MPH, and 15th percentile in chase rate at 34.1%. He also only pulled the ball in the air 10.8% which was in the bottom 20% of major league hitters. This all coincided with his career worst .719 OPS this season and career worst .292 AVG.
So what does all of this mean? What type of player is Luis Arráez? He is a contact-heavy, above-average hitter that provides limited value outside of his hit tool (which is still elite). But to really make an impact on a team, he needs to be leading the league in hits and pulling the ball in the air at a 13-14% clip like he was when he won all of those batting titles. Arraez could complement a team that has an aggressive, power-heavy lineup and serve as a table setter at the bottom of the lineup.
CONTRACT
MLB Trade Rumors projects Arraez to sign a two-year $24 million contract. His contract will be a test as to how much teams still value batting average in the modern game.
RECOMMENDATION: STAY AWAY
The Mets have reportedly been looking for right-handed bats to complement to add into the lineup. As a first baseman and designated hitter, Arráez would most likely be a replacement for Pete Alonso if he signs elsewhere, not signed in addition to him. The Mets are looking to improve their overall defense, and rostering two players with limited defensive ability does not align with that strategy. If Pete decides to sign with another team, the Mets will more likely target another bat with HR capability to cover some of the gap he will leave. Citi Field’s dimensions may also work against Arraez, as his extra-base hit ability may be diminished. With how the Mets’ roster is currently constructed, it is hard to see how Arraez would fit.
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