Free Agent Profile: Kyle Tucker, OF
Kyle Tucker, OF
Position: OF, B/T: L/R
Player Data: Age: 28 (01/17/1997)
2025 Traditional Stats: 136 G, 597 PA, .266/.377/.464/.841, 133 H, 22 HR, 73 RBI
2025 Advanced Stats: 136 wRC+, 14.7 K%, 14.6 BB%, .282 BABIP, .382 xwOBA, 4.5 fWAR
Rundown
After being drafted by the Houston Astros in 2015, Kyle Tucker went on to develop into a star. Despite some early struggles in Houston, Tucker ended a seven-year career with a line of .274/.353/.516/.870 with 125 HR and 417 RBI with the Astros. From 2021 to 2024, Tucker ranked 11th in baseball in wRC+ and 14th in fWAR, cementing himself as a staple in the major leagues. Tucker played a vital role in winning the 2022 World Series over the Phillies. However, with an impending free agency on the horizon, Tucker was traded from Houston to Chicago prior to the 2025 season. After being traded to Chicago this offseason, Tucker had a rollercoaster of a season with the Cubs.
Through the end of June, Tucker looked like he was heading towards an incredible free agency, tying Pete Alonso for fifth in wRC+. However, after a very rough second half of the year, some injury issues, and a mediocre playoffs, 2025 looked like just a very solid year from a very solid player. At first glance, the underlying metrics for the 2025 season look great. Elite xwOBA, fantastic chase rate and BB%, very strong batted ball profile. However, Tucker posted a career low in hard hit rate, a low max exit velocity, and a league-average exit velocity. These may be related to the lingering hairline fracture in his hand sustained in June, but still not super encouraging. It is fair to believe these results may be outliers and bet on the previous consistency of the fantastic previous four seasons.
Overall, the 2025 season was still a good year, and his xBA (.282) and xSLG (.500) tend to suggest that he was potentially a little unlucky. Tucker has produced 20+ homers in each of the last five seasons, with All-Star appearances in the last four. Of concern is his recent injury bug. Tucker played only 78 games in 2024 and, despite playing 136 games in 2025, experienced both hand and hamstring injuries. Still, Tucker enters free agency as a premier player in the sport with tons of upside. While his best defensive days may be behind him (-2 OOA), he profiles as an elite middle of the order hitter for any team.
Contract
Tucker enters the offseason widely regarded as the top UFA bat on the market. Spotrac gives Tucker a market value of $40.2 million average annual value (AAV) and a projected contract of 10 years, $401.7M. Those values for AAV and total contract value would rank Tucker fifth and fourth, respectively, in the major leagues. As the crowning jewel of the 2026 FA class, all of the big-market teams will be in on Tucker. Outside of Cody Bellinger, there aren’t many other great options for major impact outfielders.
Despite some injury issues in the past two seasons, Tucker is a cornerstone piece of a franchise and can step in immediately to improve any franchise for years to come.
Recommendation
After the 2024 season, David Stearns said that “pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible to us”, and with the contract Juan Soto just signed, I believe him. It is reasonable to assume that an outfielder, specifically centerfield, is a pressing area of need for the Mets. Cedric Mullins is a free agent and likely will not be brought back, Brandon Nimmo and Juan Soto are locked into long-term deals, which could end up seeing some DH time sooner rather than later, and Tyrone Taylor did not play well enough to earn a starting job in 2026. However, I am not sure if a Tucker deal makes sense for the Mets.
As great as Tucker has been in the past, it is difficult to assemble a team with three long-term deals of over $34 million AAV each. Committing $125 million or more annually to three players limits financial flexibility and roster flexibility, two things that I am not sure Stearns wants to do. I think the Mets will check in and monitor the situation, which I believe is the correct thing to do. Undeniably, Tucker is a great player who makes any team better. The Mets should be involved in his free agent process, but if the contract numbers approach the Spotrac projections, I don’t know if it’s a move that the Mets should make.
Would Tucker make the Mets a better team? Absolutely. Inserting Tucker into the Mets lineup for the rest of his career would drastically improve their offense. However, for the price tag that he is likely going to cost, the Mets might be better off spending the money he would require on other parts of the team while other free agents hold down the fort for Carson Benge.
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