Season-Long Struggles Haunt Mets in Final Stretch

The 2025 Mets finished their final 2025 home stand for the regular season on Sunday. It has been a positive year overall, playing in front of fans who set a new attendance record at Citi Field. The Mets finished 49-32 at home in 2025.

Unfortunately, after losing the final two games to the last-place Nationals, the Mets played themselves out of a playoff spot for the first time since April 5. And while, of course, the season is over and the Mets are by no means out of playoff contention with six games remaining, the question on everyone’s minds is, “How did this happen?”

The 2025 Mets still have six games to rewrite their story. Tied with the Reds (who hold the tiebreaker over New York), they only need to play one game better than Cincinnati this week, and make sure they stay ahead of the rest of the field. But if the story arc plays like it did this weekend, 2025 will go down as one of the biggest failed seasons in team history.

This series against the Nationals served as a microcosm for this team’s troubles. Starting pitchers didn’t pitch well (or long) enough. The offense scored a decent amount of runs (17 over the three games), except when the team needed it the most. There were some disappointing performances from players acquired at the deadline. And of course, the defense was putrid at times. But overall, it was a whole group that is incredulously less than the sum of its parts.

Against the Nationals, Mets pitching gave up 14 runs in three games to the 21st-ranked offense at Citi Field, a stadium known for its run suppression. 4.7 runs a game certainly isn’t ideal, but with the Nationals having a team ERA worse than everyone not named the Rockies (5.32), and a bullpen ERA worse than everyone (5.60), it was set up perfectly for the offense to do what has been expected of them all year.

On Friday, they did just that. Their young stud catcher, Francisco Alvarez, who many believed would take a big step forward this year, hit a big game-tying double.  Francisco Lindor drove in the leading run. And Juan Soto hit the 3-run home run that all but put the game away.

Cade Cavalli started for the Nats on Saturday. Making only his tenth career start, he entered the game with a 4.76 ERA on the season. Well, Cavalli, Konnor Pilkington and Clayton Beeter (relievers who also entered the game with ERAs over four) held the Mets scoreless for the first seven innings.

Mark Vientos was able to finally provide some offense in the eighth, against the Nats’ most talented reliever, Jose Ferrer. Soto drove in the tying run against Ferrer in the ninth, and the Mets had the winning run 90 feet away with Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte up at bat. But they were overmatched, even by an overworked Ferrer, who had already thrown more pitches that game than any other this season.

So the vets couldn’t get the job done, how about the kids? Well, Luisangel Acuña, Alvarez and Ronny Mauricio all had chances to score the free runner to win the game in the 10th, but failed to score him.

But with the Nats pushing their putrid bullpen to the limit on Saturday, that made them even more vulnerable on Sunday. Their plan A? Sending out the tag team of Jake Irvin (9.36 ERA in his previous seven starts) and Mitchell Parker, the two pitchers who entered the day having given up the most and second-most earned runs in the entire sport.

New York scored just one run in the first five innings, and that was only because the RBI single came from Daylen Lile crashing into the wall and having the ball dislodged from his glove. Lindor cut the lead in half with a sixth-inning solo homer, but that would be it for the Mets’ offense against Irvin and Parker.

The Mets entered 2025 with prognosticators and fans alike believing that their pitching was a question mark, with a ceiling that could make them World Series contenders. But even at its floor, the offense would be more than good enough to make up for it.

One major talking point for the Mets this year is hitting with RISP, as is often the case for a team that has better offensive players than the eventual offensive output.

Incredulously, the Mets actually have the third-highest OPS (.801) in baseball with RISP. Their BA with RISP is 11th (.259), but considering all the hoopla and their overall BA being 12th (.250), it’s tough to complain much about that either.

Going position by position, it’s tough to take much issue with that many spots in the lineup. Alvarez has a .772 OPS, by far his most in any full season. Pete Alonso has taken such a step up in 2025 that Mets fans are ready to give him a lifetime contract. Jeff McNeil has also righted the ship in 2025, putting up a 115 OPS+, his highest since 2022. Lindor has an OPS above .800 again. Nimmo has improved his OPS by 30 points from 2024. Vientos has definitely seen the biggest decrease in output this season, but with Brett Baty putting up his best numbers this year playing mostly third, including a great second half (slashing .288/.354/.466), that has mitigated a lot of Vientos’ struggles. Not to mention the team replaced Marte with Soto in right.

So what’s the difference this year then? If it isn’t individual stats or RISP stats, why has this team done worse on offense in 2025? Well, the lesson is that it doesn’t just matter that you hit; it also matters when you hit.

A common anecdotal theme of the 2024 Mets is that they would go scoreless early in games, only to then put up a crooked number in a late and close contest. Well, in reality, the 2025 Mets have been terrible at doing that.

While the team OPS with RISP is .801, when the game is late and close, their OPS overall is .672. They also have fattened up when they need those extra runs the least. When the Mets are winning, their OPS is .771, and when they’re losing, it’s .709. When the margin of the game is five runs or more, whether they’re winning or losing, the team’s OPS is .815. But when the margin is four runs or fewer, that OPS goes down to .746.

Now, some of that difference is expected, with all teams being strategic when to chase games, saving their best bullpen pitchers for when they’re tied or winning close, etc. But that stark difference in all those numbers is what is sinking this Mets team.

As was stated earlier, the script still has at least one week of story in it. But if it ends prematurely in 2025, expect the offseason to look a little different in Queens in how the team approaches players and free agency.

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