Series Preview: Mets Host Nationals in Final Home Series

The New York Mets (79-74) have won a series? Yes, yes they have! The Mets took two of three over the San Diego Padres to put two games between them and the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cincinnati Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. With nine games to go, their momentum is trending in the right direction. Next up is the Washington Nationals (62-91), who have lost seven of their last 10. Anything less than a series victory would be a loss for the Mets.

Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Friday: Andrew Alvarez (1-0, 1.15 ERA) vs. Brandon Sproat (0-1, 2.25 ERA): After making 25 starts in Triple-A Rochester this season, Alvarez has performed well early on in the big leagues. He has allowed just two earned runs in his first 15 2/3 innings. Alvarez threw a season-high six shutout innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates last Saturday, earning a no-decision. So far, he has primarily featured a four-seam fastball, curveball and a slider. Sproat was unlucky to not get his first career win against the Texas Rangers last Saturday, throwing six scoreless innings on 70 pitches. Through two starts, his best weapon has been his sweeper. Opponents are hitting .083 against it with a .083 slugging percentage and a 33.4% whiff rate.
• Saturday: Cade Cavalli (3-1, 4.76 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (4-1, 1.19 ERA): Cavalli’s career has been derailed by major injury after major injury. To his credit though, he worked his way back into the rotation early last month, marking his first big league appearance since 2022. After a few solid appearances, Cavalli has pitched to a 7.27 ERA over his last four outings. McLean has very quickly established himself as the ace of the Mets staff. He has opened his career with six consecutive starts in which he has allowed two runs or less. McLean has yet to lose at home, pitching to a 0.00 ERA in 19 1/3 innings across three starts. He will matching up with the Nationals for the first time.
• Sunday: Mitchell Parker (8-16, 5.85 ERA) vs. Clay Holmes (11-8, 3.77 ERA): Parker has had a tough year, leading the league in losses. Home runs have been an issue for him, allowing at least one in nine consecutive starts. Over that period, he has pitched to a 8.26 ERA. Parker is 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA in three career outings against the Mets. Holmes will start Sunday’s series finale, with Sean Manaea likely to piggyback him in long relief. That strategy appeared to benefit both pitchers in Tuesday’s win against the Padres, as they combined to give up three runs over nine innings. If Manaea does not return from the paternity list, Carlos Mendoza may use another pitcher for multiple innings. Huascar Brazobán could be an option in that role.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

This season has been far from simple for the Mets. They have performed well against some of the best teams in baseball, but they have also lost series against teams well below their level. Two of those clubs are the Miami Marlins and the Nationals. The Mets are a combined 11-9 against them this season. If they want to make the postseason, winning their final series against both of their divisional opponents is a must. With the Diamondbacks, Reds and the San Francisco Giants within striking distance, the pressure remains on the Mets.

PREDICTION

The Mets have played much better over the last couple days. If that trend continues, they should have no problem winning this series against the Nationals. I expect a game or two to be tight in the late innings, but I think this group answers the call in front of the Citi Field crowd. The Mets sweep the series.

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