What Could a David Peterson Extension Look Like?

David Peterson has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 18 of 20 starts, made the All-Star team for the first time this season and is eighth in the National League in ERA (2.83). He leads the Mets in innings (121) in a year where availability has been the most important ability. Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn and Frankie Montas have all missed significant parts of the season because of injuries. Griffin Canning is done for the year.

Peterson signed a one-year, $4.6 million contract in January to avoid arbitration and the Mets have one year left of team control. He would be eligible for free agency after the 2026 season.

Peterson will be 30 in September. (It’s true, people born in 1995 will be 30 this year. I double checked.) What might it take to keep the lefty in the only MLB uniform he has ever worn if the Mets want to extend him before he tests free agency?

Comps

Some recent extensions might offer guidance. Maybe the best example is Joe Musgrove.

In August 2022, the Padres extended his pact for five years and $100 million. He would turn 30 in four months, had just made his first All-Star team and the previous season was the best of his then-six-year career. (He was in the midst of a year where he would go 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA and pitch unfortunately well at Citi Field in the Wild Card round.)

In April 2023, the Twins decided that right-hander Pablo Lopez was worth a four-year, $73.5 million contract extension. He was 27, coming off a season where he set career highs in starts (32), innings (180) and strikeouts (174) and pitched to a 3.75 ERA.

In February 2024, a 27-year-old Mitch Keller signed a five-year, $77 million extension with the Pirates. He went 13-9 with a 4.21 ERA the previous season, logged 194 1/3 innings and made the All-Star team.

The Royals announced a Seth Lugo extension on Monday that will pay the 35-year-old a guaranteed $46 million for 2026-2027 and has a vesting option for 2028 worth $20 million or a club option at $17 million. (A vesting option means the salary kicks in if Lugo meets certain performance measures, such as innings pitched.) Lugo, 7-5 with a 2.95 ERA, was the runner up for the Cy Young award last year (16-9, 3.00 ERA, 206 2/3 innings pitched, 181 strikeouts) after making his first All-Star team.

It wasn’t an extension, but the Mets signed Manaea to a three-year, $75 million contract in December after he pitched to a 3.47 ERA while throwing a career-high 181 2/3 innings at age 32. In the same offseason, they added Montas, 32, in free agency on a two-year, $34 million deal.

Another free agent last winter, Yusei Kikuchi, signed a three-year, $63 million deal with the Angels after going a combined 9-10 for the Blue Jays and Astros and pitching to a 4.05 ERA with 206 strikeouts in 175 2/3 innings. The 34-year-old was stellar for the Astros (2.70 ERA, 60 innings pitched) down the stretch of the playoff race.

Final Offer

Starting pitcher salaries, especially for good guys in their early 30s, are high, with the above salaries hovering around or clearing $20 million. The average annual values on the contracts above range from $15.4 million (Keller) to $25 million per season (Manaea). The years range from two to five.

Given Peterson has one year of arbitration, you can assume that, after his performance this year, he’d make around $8 million to $9 million. Then when he’s on the open market, given where starting pitching salaries are, he could arguably sign a four-year deal worth $20 million per year for his age 31-34 seasons. He has a case for it.

So let’s settle on a number. After this season, the Mets should offer David Peterson a five-year deal worth $85 million—$17 million annually. It’d buy out his final year of arbitration and lock Peterson down for the next five seasons.

Given Peterson’s reliability this season and performance since returning from injury last year (2.86 ERA over 242 innings), an extension similar to (but less than) what Musgrove got right before hitting free agency is fair. He doesn’t rely on velocity to be effective (that should serve him well as he ages) and there is something to be said for taking care of a homegrown product. The Mets selected Peterson in the first round of the 2017 draft and stuck with him through inconsistency and injuries. It would be a shame to see him spend the larger part of a successful career with a different team.

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