Trade Profile: Zach Eflin, RHP

Zach Eflin, RHP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 31 (04/08/1994)

2025 Traditional Stats: 12 G, 12 GS, 62 IP, 6-5, 5.95 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 42 SO, 11 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 65 ERA+, 15.6% SO%, 4.1% BB%, 4.26 xERA, 5.72 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, -0.4 fWAR, -0.4 bWAR

RUNDOWN

The 31-year-old right-handed starter has been subject to trade rumors as the Orioles’ disappointing season continues and Eflin’s contract expires at the end of the year. Currently on the 15-day injured list with lower-back soreness, Eflin seems to be getting better as he completed a second rehab start Sunday. (He’s allowed two earned runs in eight innings over two starts.) This season hasn’t gone the way Eflin would have hoped, as this is his second IL stint, and when he is on the field, he hasn’t been at his best.

Eflin has made 12 starts this year, hurling 62 innings. But in that time, he has been getting roughed up, as his ERA is 5.95 and his FIP sits at 5.72. His bread-and-butter sinker/cutter combo has been one of the reasons he has struggled, going from a combined run value of +15 in 2024 to a -4 in 2025. But that also could be cause injuries were hampering him.

His changeup has been his only positive pitch this season, according to Statcast run value. He only threw the pitch 148 times all last year, but this year, he’s thrown it 156 times, mostly to lefties. Hitters are slugging just .346 off the changeup. Eflin’s Stuff+ also has had a downtick this year, going from 100 (league average) to 93 (below league average). With all that, let’s take a look at what a potential package could look like.

PACKAGE

Eflin is a rental as his contract ends at the end of the year. That lessens his value, and along with his performance struggles, it shouldn’t be a crazy cost. Last trade deadline, the Rays got a handful of prospects for Eflin, but his value is much less now than it was then. Here’s our offer:

Mets Receive:

• RHP Zach Eflin

Orioles Receive:

• RHP Dom Hamel (No. 24 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, No. 48 according to Mike Mayer)

Recommendation

Eflin is a solid starter who has simply had a down year overall, but with the Mets needing starters, Eflin could be a decent fit, should the Mets think they could correct his woes. The worst-case scenario for the Mets is you cut your losses in the offseason and minimal prospect cost. Best-case scenario, he gives the Mets solid innings down the stretch and helps stabilize the rotation.

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