Three strategies the Mariners could take in the 2025 MLB Draft

The Mariners got creative with their bonus pool last year, but other teams will be looking to do the same in an “unpredictable” draft class

The MLB Draft begins this coming Sunday and the Mariners have the third overall pick, the highest they’ve picked in the Jerry Dipoto era. The Royals have the most Day 1 picks of any team, with five, but the Mariners have the second-largest bonus pool of any team to work with, giving them an enviable amount of flexibility with which to map their own adventure through the 2025 draft (they had the largest bonus pool, but with the recent Orioles-Rays trade, the Orioles now have the largest bonus pool available, just over $19M compared to the Mariners’ roughly $17M).

In the MLB Draft, each draft “slot” has an assigned monetary value, sort of an MSRP for the selection. Teams can offer players money at slot, under-slot, or over-slot, and players can choose to accept depending on the amount of leverage a player has. Younger players, like high schoolers, have more leverage because they can turn down an offer and opt to go to (or remain at) college, while college seniors have the least amount of leverage and are most likely to take an under-slot deal. So having lots of early picks is important for a good draft, but have lots of money to spread around is arguably even more powerful.

Here are a few strategies the Mariners could use with their combination of high picks and large bonus pool:

Strategy One: Go chalk early, go prep second and third, spread the rest of the money around equally

While there aren’t slam-dunk top-tier talents in this draft, there are “six or seven names” the Mariners are looking at, according to Director of Scouting Scott Hunter. We’d be surprised if those choices weren’t laser-focused on three names, one of whom is guaranteed to be available at the third pick: LHP Kade Anderson, LHP Jamie Arnold, and SS Aiva Arquette. All of these players will command at least slot value, so they’re not money-saving picks, exactly, but they won’t need to be bought out of college commitments. That should still leave the Mariners a generous amount of bonus pool money with which to pursue high school talent with their next two picks, should they opt to go that route,

What this might look like:

• First round (#3 overall): LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State
• Competitive Balance Round A (#35 overall): SS Nick Becker, Don Bosco HS (NJ)
• Second round (#57 overall): OF Charles Davalan, Arkansas

Less important than the actual names here, which could be mixed-and-matched with other similar players in the draft, is the strategy. The Mariners go chalk at the top, taking one of the best available college arms at slot (roughly $9.5M). Since Arnold is one of the premiere talents in this draft, there’s no money-saving to be had here, but assuming it’s not a well overslot deal, that should free up some money to go overslot to a prep shortstop in the second round, buying 18-year-old Nick Becker out of a strong commitment to Virginia, where his brother is currently a star shortstop. Slot value for this pick is $2,758,300, and the Mariners could go well over that, say $3.5M or more. That would still leave enough for another solid choice in the third round—here, the outfielder who was an integral part of the Razorbacks’ College World Series run, Charles Davalan, who produces surprising pop despite a 5’9” frame and showcases great bat-to-ball skills with solid plate discipline. Slot value here is about $1.64M, so, even with going well overslot with their second pick, the Mariners should still have money to spend if they want to try to snag another highly regarded prep in the third or fourth round.

Strategy Two: Go prep early, then make up the money with cost-saving picks

The other talent that’s clustered at the top of this draft is the prep talent: two shortstops out of Oklahoma in Ethan Holliday and Eli Willits, and two members of the powerhouse Corona HS program in California, RHP Seth Hernandez and SS Billy Carlson. Should the Mariners go this route, they’ll need to buy these players out of their college commitments, something that’s even more lucrative now that NIL money is in play. This feels like a less-likely pathway for the Mariners, who tend to be more risk-averse, even selecting lower-ceiling higher-floor players like Cole Young when they do go prep. It all depends on what they feel the best value is in the draft; if other teams go in heavily on college players early, the Mariners might pivot to a prep-heavy strategy.

What this might look like:

• First round (#3): SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
• Competitive Balance Round A (#35): LHP Cameron Appenzeller, Glenwood HS (IL)
• Second round (#57): 2B Henry Godbout, Virginia

While the players listed in this exercise are more archetypes than prescriptive choices, if the Mariners were to go prep with their first choice, Willits seems like the one obvious fit. One of the youngest players in this draft class, Willits is committed to Oklahoma and will be a costly sign, but the son of former big-leaguer Reggie has the level of polish the Mariners covet in their prep draftees. Even going well overslot to sign him, the Mariners should have enough for a second prep selection, bumping up lefty Cameron Appenzeller from where he’s generally projected to go in the late 50s—again, a polished-for-his-years prep arm who comes out of the Midwest, similar to last year’s second-rounder Ryan Sloan but with less current physicality. Then it’s into money-saving mode, with Virginia’s Henry Godbout making a leap from the (projected) third to the second round, as a polished hitter who makes consistent hard contact and doesn’t strike out

Strategy Three: Throw a curveball with pick #3, have money to splash through the rest of the draft

The Mariners are masters of zigging when others predict them to zag; I will always remember the MLB announcers attempting to suss out who Wyatt Mills was on the fly back in 2017. They could go well off the rails here in a draft that Director of Scouting Scott Hunter has described as “unpredictable,” getting creative with how they use their bonus pool.

What this might look like:

• First round (#3): LHP Cade Obermuller, Iowa
• Competitive Balance Round A (#35): 3B Xavier Neyens, Mount Vernon (WA)
• Second round (#57): RHP Aaron Watson, Trinity Christian (FL)

This is the most off-the-wall of the options and the least probable, but also an example of what kind of chaos could reign in a draft that Scott Hunter called “unpredictable.” In this scenario, the Mariners reach back to take projected second-rounder Cade Obermuller, a lefty with a funky arm angle who doesn’t have the loudest stuff in the draft but has a lot of things prized by Mariners pitching development, like an exceptionally flat VAA and a big-breaking slider. An underslot deal with Obermuller allows them to cut big deals with two preps predicted to go towards the back of the first round/in the competitive balance rounds. I’m including local kid Neyens here because 1) it’s fun to potentially have a homegrown player in the system and 2) some recent struggles on the showcase circuit might reasonably push the toolsy, 6’4” infielder into this area, fairly or not. The 6-foot-5 Watson is a polished prep arm in the model of Ryan Sloan who seems like a very Mariners-type player, getting high marks from scouts for makeup and maturity in addition to an advanced feel to pitch and plus command. A first three of Obermuller-Becker-Watson is my dream scenario, and what is pre-draft analysis for but for dreaming?