Series Preview: Mets Host Raging-Hot Brewers

For the past 16 games, baseball has not been fun for the New York Mets.

In almost every conceivable fashion, New York has struggled. The lineup has ranged from shaky to borderline inept. The starting pitching, once the leader of the overall team ERA in the National League, has seen some regression from some of its prominent members. New York’s bullpen has not been much different, as key standouts from the early parts of the season have helped to blow leads and lose games. As a result, the Mets have seen their division lead evaporate and are dangerously close to falling out of a playoff spot.

While I am not overly concerned about the Mets’ long-term prospects, they need to find a way to right the ship immediately. That urgency is only amplified when they face a fellow NL playoff contender in the Milwaukee Brewers in a rematch of the 2025 NL Wild Card round.

How do the teams stack up against each other on the mound? What is the main storyline to watch, and what players should you keep an eye on? Most importantly, what will the results be?

That is why you are here, and that is what I will answer here today! Welcome back to another series preview for Metsmerized Online!

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday: Clay Holmes (8-4, 2.97 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (8-4, 2.90 ERA)

• Clay Holmes notched a win in his last outing by grinding through five tough innings of baseball against the Braves. Despite four walks, Holmes only gave up three hits and one run, which came on a home run. Over his past three starts, Holmes has struggled with his command and has seen his strikeout numbers fall off a little bit, too. On the year, the former reliever has notched a pitching run value of nine and has seen every pitch but his slider notch an individual positive run average. As always, the name of the game for Holmes is control. If he attacks with his deep arsenal and puts himself ahead in counts, he can rack up strikeouts. If he loses the zone early, Holmes could be in store for a rough outing. For the Mets to win on Tuesday, they will need the attacking pitcher who helped establish himself as one of the better ones on this version of the Mets. 
• On the other side of things is Freddy Peralta, a pitcher who has had lots of success against New York in the past. Peralta has allowed three runs or fewer over his past five starts. Additionally, Peralta has struck out six batters or more in four of those starts. He has a 25.5 strikeout percentage, a great hard hit rate of 35%, and a solid walk rate of 8.8%. Coming off an eight-strikeout performance, the Mets will have their work cut out for them against the Brewers’ pitcher. 

Wednesday: Blade Tidwell (0-1, 10.13 ERA)  vs. Jacob Misiorowski (3–0, 1.13 ERA)

• In game two, the Mets will need one of their young arms to come through in a big way. Blade Tidwell has been a very hot and cold pitcher at the major league level up to this point. His arsenal is solid, led by a fastball that averages 95.6 miles per hour and a potential-filled slider. On the other hand, Tidwell has been smoked in two of his appearances; both the Pirates and Cardinals scored at least four runs on him. Add in the walks/spotty control, and you truly never know what the Tennessee product may bring to the mound.
• Even if they have a puncher’s chance in the game, one could make the argument that New York’s opponent on the mound could deliver a huge knockout blow on Wednesday. A top pitching prospect in the sport, Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski has been nothing short of dominant since arriving at the MLB level. The pitcher’s fastball has been electric, averaging 99.6 miles per hour with it. Add in a 100th(!!!) percentile extension and a lethal slider and curveball, and you have a player who needs to be discussed in the vein of Paul Skenes. New York, to truly have a chance to win this game, will have to figure out a puzzle that has yet to be solved this season.

Thursday: David Peterson (5-4, 3.30 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (6-2, 3.30 ERA) 

• More so than any other pitcher on the Mets, David Peterson needs a rebound performance to close out this early-week series. The lefty has been shelled for five runs in each of his last two starts, and at least three runs in his past three starts. He has seen his strikeouts decrease and his walks increase, along with seeing batters start to hit the ball harder off him consistently. Peterson, like he was earlier in the season, needs to find his command and stay out of the heart of the zone. His velocity is not overpowering, so he needs to win with location and spin. If he can find a version closer to how he pitched at the beginning of the 2025 season, Peterson can likely give the Mets some key innings ahead of another series with the Yankees.
• To close out the series, the Brewers will send an old friend out on the mound. Jose Quintana has been very servicable for Milwaukee, notching a 3.30 ERA through 11 games started. He is not generating many strikeouts, but he is limiting barrels (6.9%) and has induced plenty of ground balls (44.4%). Despite the overall numbers, Quintanan has been knocked around as of late; in two of his last three starts, he has given up four runs or more. As a result, New York needs to jump on Quintana early and make sure he does not find his footing.

The Main Headline

For this week’s series, my main headline is not very different from my previous iteration. However, the focus is shifting to Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. 

Over the past two weeks, the shortstop and first baseman have not been performing up to expectations at the plate. Lindor’s OPS is down to .774 after this stretch, and Alonso has seen his drop to .921 from .981.

I could dive into so many reasons why the Mets are struggling, how they need to turn it around, and so on. However, the buck sometimes starts and stops with the star players. Alonso and Lindor are two elite players for a reason, and I am not concerned about them in the totality of the season. But in this moment, the stars need to step up, and as a result, I will be watching Lindor and Alonso closely this week.

Prediction

In their series against the Brewers, I see the Mets winning two of three, resulting in them stealing a series from the Brewers to get back on track. Clay Holmes will battle through six innings, and the bullpen will pick him up to help him seal the win.  Pete Alonso will notch two extra-base hits, and Francisco Lindor will go yard. Juan Soto will also have his first walk-off in a Mets uniform. 

After this series, I have the Mets at 50-38 heading into a Fourth of July weekend battle against the Yankees.

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