Guardians Trade Deadline Targets
Please, for the love of God, get a legitimate hitter.
Everyone knows that the best part about the MLB trade deadline isn’t, in fact, the deadline itself. It’s the speculation leading up to the trade deadline that makes this time of year so much fun.
Is your team bad? Find a prospect you like on someone else’s team and mock up a trade for them that sends your best 98 wRC+ utility player for their top 100 prospect.
Is your team good? Find a player you like on a bad team and offer your bad players for their good player.
Is your team the Cleveland Guardians? That sucks.
As we all know, the Guardians are almost always absent in most meaningful ways from the trade deadline. There is, of course, the outlier: the 2016 deadline. The deadline that everyone expects the front office to mirror in the current year.
So let’s pretend, for a few minutes, that the Guardians are going to make a major move (or, if we allow ourselves to be gluttonous, more than one major move)
Let’s start by looking at this team. What do we need?
A centerfielder, a right fielder, a left-handed reliever, and potentially a short-term solution at shortstop.
I think it’s most realistic for the Guardians to attack their issues in the outfield and in the bullpen. Per The Athletic, the Guardians have (as they always do) asked around about right fielders. The Guardians will probably (again, as they always are) look for a right-handed bat who crushes LHP. So, let’s look at some options. (I’m not going to talk about left-handed relievers because I’d wager the Guardians, if they trade for one, will probably trade for a minor-leaguer or a project pitcher).
Our own beloved Quincy already wrote an article looking at some guys the Guardians should trade for, so I’ll skip over the targets we have in common.
Let’s start with the outfielders:
Bryan Reynolds. Switch-hitter, 30 years old. Free Agent in 2032. Career 118 wRC+, 17 fWAR.
Analysis: Reynolds has been wildly unlucky this year and is carrying the 4th biggest wOBA-xwOBA difference (.291 vs .351) in the league. 137 points separate his .361 SLG from his .498 xSLG. Even still, he has a 118 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Over his career he has a 122 wRC+ against RHP and a 108 wRC+ against LHP. He’s very interesting for many reasons. The main one is that he is the only position player on the Pirates who currently has long-term money assigned to him. Assuming the Pirates will at least try to extend one (or both) of Paul Skenes and Oneil Cruz, they will need to free up the money that Reynolds has attached to him. He signed an 8-year/$106.75m extension in 2023, and is owed $75.25 million over the next 5 years (not including the money owed to him this year). He has a club option in his age 36 season (2031) worth $20m. The Pirates should be desperately trying to put a real roster around Skenes and Cruz while both still don their uniforms, and trading Reynolds could kill two birds with one stone, as he doesn’t align with their young core (Skenes, Chandler, Jones, Cruz). I think you could trade Kayfus and DeLauter (and maybe someone in either low- or high-A). The contract isn’t too overwhelming (~$15m AAV), and the Guardians would be hard-pressed to find someone who could consistently produce in the outfield for any less than that. Reynolds has never posted a wRC+ under 100 in a full season in his entire career, and you can bet on him getting hot in the 2nd half as he gets some positive regression. I love Chase, but I think that Reynolds is a much safer option. I know that the Pirates probably would only field offers that would match his expected production, not his actual production. I also know that this organization has a complete inability to target, draft, and develop hitters. They know that, we know that, the entire league knows that. Targeting Reynolds would, if this team were serious, be priority 1a at the deadline. Let’s talk about 1b.
Andy Pages (pah-hess), RHH CF, 24 years old. Pre-arb. 125 wRC+ in 2025 (132 vs RHP, 106 vs LHP)
There is quite a lot to like about Pages, so this is going to be a relatively lengthy analysis. Let’s start with the defense. Pages is quite easily one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball. This year, he’s *fourth* in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value. He has elite range and arm strength, and a well above-average sprint speed. This alone should make him a target for the Guardians. The Guardians desperately need another elite defender on this team and especially one who can produce at the plate. At first glance, Pages doesn’t really have any elite tools at the plate. He chases, he doesn’t walk, he doesn’t hit the ball hard very often, and he doesn’t square up the ball well. However, he makes up for all of that with a fantastic launch angle sweet-spot% (81st percentile). He also doesn’t whiff and doesn’t strike out. All together, he has a 65th percentile xwOBA (.344), and a 68th percentile xSLG (.471). He’s an elite defender with an above average bat with 4+ years of team control. What’s not to like? And would you look at that, we have a storied relationship with his team’s GM! You could even say that Friedman (the Dodgers’ GM) owes us more than one for the Caminero mishap. So, what would it take? The Guardians have long been searching for a RHH outfielder who can defend and hit. One who plays elite defense in one of the most important positions on the field, too? This would take quite a lot, and I think if I mentioned who I think it’d take to get it done 6 months ago I’d get crucified. But, I think we’ve all come around on trading him. It will take no less than Emmanuel Clase to acquire Pages. If you don’t think it’s worth it, hear me out. We’ve proven now that we can churn out bullpen arms like almost no other organization. We have proven for a decade that we can develop pitching like few other organizations. We have also proven, since Lindor, that we cannot develop hitters... at all. We have one (1) organizational graduate who has been an above average bat his entire career — Steven Kwan. One. In over a decade. Clase is on perhaps the best value pitching extension in the league. The Dodgers need a closer with Tanner Scott’s struggles and with Michael Kopech’s injury. The Guardians need a RHH centerfielder. The only shortcoming of this trade is an increasingly small bullpen circle of trust. With Walters out, this trade is evermore risky. But an elite closer is worthless if this team cannot score enough runs to give Clase a save situation regularly. Cade Smith as the closer is, admittedly, a step down, but not enough of one to warrant balking at moving Clase. I’d guess that you’d also have to throw in a lower level prospect like Alfonsin Rosario or Joey Oakie to get this done, but even still this should be a no-brainer. The Guardians cannot win without offense, and the Dodgers have an embarrassment of riches in that department. So, start using your renowned “pitching lab” to target hitters so you don’t have to fix that issue immediately. They don’t need Pages with Edman being able to play an adequate centerfield. And they certainly don’t need the offense with three of the best hitters in baseball sitting atop their lineup. The Guardians can’t develop hitting but they can develop pitching. As great as Clase is, the team can bet on their bullpen development (and Clase’s eventual decline) while acquiring a starting centerfielder, and an elite closer would be the final touch on the Dodgers’ juggernaut roster.
Kyle Stowers, LHH RF, 27 years old. Pre-arb. 123 wRC+ in 2025 (128 vs LHP, 122 vs RHP).
Analysis: I’d much prefer Stowers’ teammate, Jesús Sánchez, but I feel it’s worth at least talking about Stowers. He’s running an 84th percentile xwOBA (.371) and an 86th percentile xSLG (.519). He has elite barrel, hard-hit, and bat speed numbers. He’s in the 96th percentile in barrel % (17.7%), the 89th in hard-hit % (51.3%), and the 91st in bat speed (75.2 mph). All point to him being an elite power threat. But, there are reasons he’s not often talked about. His swing profile metrics aren’t great. He doesn’t square up the ball well despite an above-average launch angle sweet-spot %, his chase rate is in the 35th percentile (29.7%), his whiff rate is in the 4th percentile (34.4%), and his strikeout rate is in the 8th (28.8%). He does, despite this, walk a decent amount. His walk rate is average — in the 53rd percentile (8.6%). He’s also not a great defender in the outfield (-3 OAA, -3 FRV). But, he’s young. One of the main problems with acquiring him is the number of years of control he has left, which makes it a hard sell for the Marlins. However, he is relatively old for a rebuild, and the Marlins are certainly looking to get younger.
Ramón Laureano, RHH OF, 30 years old. Free agent in 2027. 133 wRC+ in 2025.
Analysis: Hear me out. Please. This is, unfortunately, a more realistic option than either Reynolds or Pages, so just hear me out. Laureano has been great this year. Despite a below average wRC+ against LHP, his expected statistics suggest that some positive regression will be coming his way. Regardless, this team needs an outfielder who is playable against both LHP and RHP. Nolan Jones is unplayable against the former, and DeLauter probably won’t see many at-bats against lefties this year. There isn’t much to write about Laureano, and I’m not quite sure what it’d take. As of writing this, the Orioles are squarely out of playoff contention. But, Mike Elias is an idiot. Even so, I’d have to assume they’d trade him. He’s blocking at-bats from their younger guys, and this would be a great sell-high move for them. If I had to guess, this would probably not take much. Most likely a pitching prospect above AA, considering the Orioles’ contention window. Maybe even a major league starter. But, with an O’Hearn trade looming on the horizon, I don’t think it’d take much to get it done. That’s the last outfielder I have, so let’s move into infielders.
Infielders:
Trevor Story, RHH SS, 32 years old. 72 wRC+ in 2025 (111 against LHP, 60 against RHP).
Analysis: Back when Story was a free agent, it was reported that the Guardians were one of his suitors. Story then signed with the Red Sox on a massive 6-year/$140m extension. Story is owed about $11m this year and has a player option at the end of this year. Assuming he declines to pursue free agency (which I’d wager to say he would), he’s owed $55m over the final years of his contract. That final year is a club option worth $25M with the buyout being worth $5m. When I started writing this, I had no idea what the Red Sox were going to do at the deadline. Now, since they’ve traded Devers, I still have no idea what the Red Sox are going to do at the deadline. It’s been reported that they plan on being heavy buyers at the deadline, but I still think this deal would make sense. The Story deal has not worked out in the ways in which it was intended back when he signed it, so I don’t think it’s outlandish to suggest the Red Sox ship him out. The Guardians have been searching for a decent everyday shortstop option since Lindor, with Rosario’s big year in 2022 being the exception. So... why Story? Well below average offensive production, bad defense, $55m+ attached to him. For a few reasons. If the Guardians were to eat the entire deal, he would be incredibly cheap. I don’t even think it would take one of our top 30 prospects to get this done. When he’s been on the field, before this year, he’s been fine for Boston. But, he hasn’t been on the field, missing over 300 games for them since they signed him back in 2022. The Red Sox have an extremely exciting crop of young prospects on their roster and a logjam that prevents them from getting consistent at-bats. Not to mention that Alex Cora has pushed back intensely on his front office’s wishes to get Mayer, Campbell, and Anthony every day playing time. For any of you who have seen Moneyball, you know where I’m going with this. The Red Sox’s GM, Craig Breslow, could force Cora’s hand into playing his younger guys with this move (and also free up more space for the eventual Anthony extension). But, I don’t think the Guardians would eat the entire deal. I also don’t think any team would eat the entire deal. Luckily, the Red Sox could still eat a significant portion of the deal while achieving all of the things I just mentioned. Assuming they retain roughly half of the contract, they still are not handicapped by that money at all. They are, regardless of what recent moves might suggest, in one of the biggest markets in the sport. So, let’s say they eat upwards of $25 million. Fine, that should still be nothing for the Guardians given their meager payroll. Kayfus would, probably, work here. Kayfus will probably never have a consistent spot on this roster, barring injuries, so it makes the most sense to trade him, now, while his value is high. He’ll be blocked at 1B by Manzardo, at RF by DeLauter, and at DH by a rotating cadre of Jose, DeLauter, Fry, and perhaps even Kwan, depending on how his injuries develop. Kayfus, alone, may be enough to get it done. Santana + a pitching prospect like, perhaps, Cantillo or Nikhazy may also get the job done. Neither giveaway would be overwhelming for the Guardians’ system, and I think it’s worth the risk here with Story. He’s gotten relatively unlucky this season, and has been scorching hot so far in June (128 wRC+). He’s been hitting fewer groundballs, and way more flyballs (33.7% & 38.3% in March/April and May, 42.5% in June). I think this is worth the risk, and you could up the package for Story if you target one of their outfielders (Duran, Rafaela, Abreu). The Guardians need some stability up the middle, and Story provides that.
Amed Rosario, 29 years old, RHH UT. Free agent at the end of the year. 97 wRC+ in 2025 (127 wRC+ against LHP).
Analysis: Just like Laureano, hear me out. We- Tito- used him wrong. He never should’ve been an everyday player. Especially not at shortstop. If you platoon him with Schneemann at 2nd or Nolan/DeLauter in RF, that would be extremely beneficial for our lineup construction against LHP. I’m not going to write anything of length because it would probably take next-to-nothing to get him. This, like Laureano, is probably a trade I see having a high likelihood of happening. Plus, he’s Jose’s best friend, so that’s good. If you’re going to be a lukewarm buyer at the deadline (like I think we will), then you might as well appease your superstar player playing out of his mind. Good locker room guy, useful as a pinch-runner and lefty specialist with utility. That’s all I have. It’s Amed. We’ve been here before.
I wanted to go a little more in-depth on the guys I really, really like who I think there’s at least a small possibility of us going after at the deadline. To wrap up this article, I wanted to touch on some of the guys I don’t think we should trade for, but I’m going to keep my reasonings short and to the point.
Ryan O’Hearn.
Analysis: Look, he’s having an unbelievable year. I’m not downplaying that. He’s been fantastic for the Orioles. He also has an 89 wRC+ against LHP, which is not fantastic. He’s a rental, and most likely won’t sign back with the Guardians. He’d block DeLauter’s ABs in RF, and take away likely at least some time from Manzardo at 1B/DH. I also don’t think this deadline is one in which we should be targeting rentals. This should not be a win now deadline, it should be a win later deadline. The Guardians should be prioritizing acquiring talented hitters who can help them beyond 2025.
Jarren Duran.
Analysis: He had a great 2024. His 2025 has been good, but not as good as last year. Performance aside, I don’t love him as a fit in this clubhouse. Even if you ignore his tennis racket incident at Fenway last year, the signs don’t point to him being a great clubhouse guy. There was a report published after Devers got traded that stated Duran fell asleep right after he was traded, and didn’t really think about it that much. Whether that’s a referendum on Devers’ impact on the clubhouse or Duran’s is immaterial to me. The slur incident alone is enough to want us to stay as far away from that as possible. Building a successful roster as a small market is as much about talent as it is about chemistry. Oh, and he has a 59 wRC+ against LHP this year. He’s a talented defender, but probably a platoon bat. Given what the Red Sox will probably ask of us for him, I don’t think it’s worth it.
Wilyer Abreu.
Analysis: I’m not entirely sure if the Red Sox will trade him, but if they really want Anthony to have a clear runway to everyday playing time, signs would point to him being moved. Abreu is extremely talented, and I would’ve loved to see us add him last year to ameliorate our struggles against RHP. But, this year, we don’t have that problem. Our biggest issue is offense against LHP. Abreu has a 56 wRC+ against LHP, and is probably limited to the cOF. If the Guardians aren’t going to trade DeLauter or Kayfus at the deadline, then they need to leave spots open for both of them to play as much as possible. Abreu takes away from that, and his production against RHP mirrors what you’d hope for from either DeLauter or Kayfus. Against LHP, you hope both of them can be, at least, playable. This trade would be redundant barring a trade for either of them. If you move both, I’d be marginally more interested in platooning him with Lane in RF.
Cedric Mullins.
Analysis: Old, expiring, and I don’t buy his production for the rest of the year.
That’s it! Thanks for reading. If you have any comments or questions I’ll be lurking in the comments ready to answer them!