Kansas City’s playoff hopes are fading fast

They have to start winning very soon

In a game, a “win condition” is a set of actions that, when accomplished, lead to a victory. The phrase has a longer history in card games and role playing games, but I also think it’s an interesting concept in general because it focuses on how you achieve a victory—winning and losing can be achieved via different approaches.

Win conditions also apply more broadly to how a sports team can achieve a specific result on the season; for good teams, we can call this a “playoff condition” if you will. Last year, the Kansas City Royals went to the playoffs for the first time in a decade and were a legitimately good team. Their playoff condition was built around three factors:

1. Have the league MVP (non-Aaron Judge division)
2. Send a killer, healthy rotation to the mound every day
3. Play in a thoroughly mediocre American League

Yes, the Royals had other strengths, but that was the winning formula. Bobby Witt Jr. had one of the best Royals seasons of all time, the rotation had the second-best ERA and the second-highest innings pitched in all of Major League Baseball, and only three AL teams won more than 88 games. Being in the same division as the 121-loss Chicago White Sox also helped.

Fast forward to this year, and watching the Royals has largely been an exercise in frustration. On May 9, the Royals had rattled off a seven-game winning streak, bringing their playoff odds, as calculated by Fangraphs, 61.6% But in the 32 games since, their playoff hopes have tanked. Over that stretch of time, Kansas City has as many wins (10) as number of games they’ve scored zero or one run (10). Now, their playoff odds sit at a season-low 13.2%.

Of crucial importance is that the Royals have come by their 34-38 record legitimately, as their Pythagorean record—which is calculated using only runs scored and runs allowed—is within two wins of their actual record. Additionally, while much discourse has revolved around the team’s lack of hitting with runners in scoring position, it is not the reason why the Royals are bad. Equivalent runs scored and runs allowed takes context out of when hits and walks happen and just looks at the volume of hits and walks, and the adjusted standings show that their second-order record is again within two wins of their actual record.

Now, before anybody gives me grief that I’m being too harsh on the team with nearly 100 games left: Could the Royals still make the playoffs? Yes! Even after the awful month they’ve had, the Royals are only three games out from the last Wild Card spot. It is also worth pointing out what the Detroit Tigers did last year and how a hot streak can totally change the fortunes of a club; the Tigers had a 0.9% chance of making the playoffs as late as August 22 and ended up winning a Wild Card series.

But I began talking about win conditions for a reason, because I’m just not sure what this team’s playoff condition is, because last year’s strengths aren’t as strong. Witt has been very good, but his whole offensive game has regressed significantly. The starting pitching staff has also been very good but not quite as good as last year, and with Cole Ragans’ injury, the margin for error is way worse.

And, of course, there’s the Royals’ direct competition. Baseball is a zero-sum game, and the Royals are competing against other teams also trying to win. The Royals find themselves behind all three division leaders, all three Wild Card teams, and four additional teams—all of whom have better records, yes, but also better run differentials than Kansas City.

The Royals’ route to the playoffs is pretty simple: hope Witt goes crazy (entirely possible), hope Jac Caglianone becomes a useful hitter (probable, but maybe not this year), acquire a legit outfield bat (likely), and hope that the 83-win pace that the Seattle Mariners are on for the third Wild Card slot is about what they’d need. But it would not take much for that plan to crumble.

Finally, there is a very good chance that the team just isn’t up to the task. Kansas City’s offensive woes have dated back to late last August, and since last May 26, the Royals have played 181 regular season games and are 86-95. If that’s who the Royals are, then it’s not gonna matter if the Royals get an outfield bat. There’s still time for the team to show otherwise. It is, however, running out.