Should the Guardians Try Less to Pull Fly Balls?
Should Cleveland be looking to go oppo more?
The Guardians are known to be a team that emphasizes “pull-and-lift” and their offense is subpar. Is it time for an adjustment?
From 2024 to 2025, the Guardians have pulled the second most fly balls in MLB at 667 times (behind the Royals at 679). Despite that, they are only 19th in team wRC+ at 98 wRC+ overall, and they are 21st in wRC+ on pulled fly-balls at .324. For comparison, the Guardians have gone opposite field the third fewest times of MLB teams in that time and have the second worst wRC+ on those hits at 74 wRC+. Finally, the Guardians are 21st in going up the middle on hits and are fourth-worst on those hits at 89 wRC+.
To go a little bit deeper on these issues, pitches on the inside part of the plate or in the heart of the zone are the easiest to pull. So, if a team wants to mitigate the strategy of “lift-and-pull”, they will tend to pitch on the outside part of the plate. In 2025, Guardians’ left-handed hitters have seen pitches on the outside part of the plate a league-leading 35% of the time and they have the 9th worst weighted on-base average on those pitches. Oddly enough, Guardians’ right-handed hitters have seen the second lowest percentage of outside pitches at 15.1%, while still having the seventh worst wOBA in baseball on those pitches.
The answer to this oddity likely lies in that in 2025, Guardians right-handed hitters have the worst wOBA on inside pitches at .277. Right-handed hitters on the Guardians have been bad, overall, so pitchers are challenging them inside and succeeding. In contrast, Guardians’ left-handed hitters have the fifth best wOBA on inside pitches at .364. So, teams are throwing those Guardians’ lefties pitches outside of the zone and trying to limit their potential to pull-fly balls and do damage on the inside part of the plate. For a final comparison, in 2024, Guardians’ right-handed hitters had the twelfth best wOBA on inside pitches at .338, and their left-handed hitters had the tenth best wOBA on inside pitches at .332. Teams are well-aware that the Guardians want inside pitches to pull, and, if Guardians’ right-handed hitters start doing that, you’ll see the percentage of outside pitches to Cleveland righties quickly climb.
The conclusion to these stats do not indicate that Cleveland should try to pull fewer fly balls. Their best offensive results come when they pull fly-balls, even though those results are not as good as most of the league that gets even better results when they pull fly balls. What the Guardians need to do is pull fly balls more effectively. In order to do that, the numbers indicate that Cleveland hitters need to make some adjustments to pitches on the outside part of the zone. Whether it is adjusting to be able to more effectively foul off pitches or poke those pitches occasionally into the opposite field, Cleveland hitters, especially those batting lefty, need to earn more pitches on the inside part of the plate (and the middle of the zone, of course - EVERYONE wants pitches in the middle of the zone where the barrel of the bat tends to make contact).
As specific examples, Baseball Savant offers 14 GameDay zones as part of the strike zone.
Right now, Kyle Manzardo has seen (in his first two seasons) 50% of pitches in the five outer GameDay zones and the only place he has a solid wOBA is at the very top outer GameDay zone. He has to find a way to better protect in the bottom four GameDay Zones and earn himself more pitches in every other portion (that he can then pull in the air!). Similarly, Bo Naylor has seen 46.6% of pitches in his career in the outer five GameDay zones and only has a solid wOBA in the very top GameDay Zone. Bo has to find a way to foul off or serve some of these pitches in the other four GameDay zones to get himself more pitches in the remaining nine GameDay zones where he can do damage.
I am not offering any information in this column that Cleveland hitters and hitting coaches don’t know, I am sure. But, as fans, something we can monitor is whether or not our right-handed hitters can begin to do more damage on inside pitches, and whether or not our left-handed hitters can begin to more effectively get the barrel of their bats to pitches on outside pitches.
No fan should want to see Cleveland hitters pull fewer fly balls; pulling fly balls is the best way to create offensive value as the stats above show us. However, what we SHOULD want to see is Guardians’ hitters earning themselves more pitches they can effectively pull and lift by figuring out how to make pitchers less comfortable working them on the outside of the plate. In order to pull and lift more pitches, the Guardians will likely need to increase their number of foul balls and hits where the barrel of the bat gets to pitches in the five outer GameDay Zones. When we observe this dynamic, it will be a sign that the Guardians’ hitting development group is making meaningful changes that should help their hitters grow and improve.