Canning Survives Tough Yankees Lineup Continuing His Strong Season
New York Mets’ starter Griffin Canning wasn’t able to go past the 5 1/3-inning mark on Saturday, however, he did enough to scatter seven hits and allow only two runs against a New York Yankees lineup with the second-highest OPS in the major leagues. With the performance, his season ERA increased slightly from 2.36 to 2.47.
It certainly wasn’t the 29-year-old’s best outing on Saturday, as he allowed a season-high nine hard-hit balls. This was not exactly surprising given two themes thus far this season. Specifically, the Yankees own the second-highest hard-hit rate in the majors and Canning owns a seventh percentile average exit velocity against with a 10th percentile hard-hit rate against. Despite this, Canning’s only two main blemishes were solo home runs. Outside that, he struck out four and, importantly, only walked one while throwing 92 pitches (64 strikes).
One may then ask how has Canning been so special this season despite such a porous hard-hit rate against? Well, he does almost everything else well. Canning owns a chase, whiff, and strikeout rate all above the league’s 60th percentile. Additionally, an 87th percentile ground-ball rate helps ensure that hard contact stays in the yard.
This new formula has Canning on pace for a career season. Prior to joining the Mets, Canning owned a 4.78 ERA across five seasons with Los Angeles. Last season, the right-handed starter posted a 5.19 ERA and 5.26 FIP across 171 2/3 innings. He only struck out 130 over those innings. This season, Canning is on pace for 18 wins and 162 strikeouts over 167 innings with a career-best 2.47 ERA.
Most importantly, thanks to the aforementioned high ground-ball rate (54.3%), which is on pace to be a far and beyond a career-high, Canning has allowed a home run rate that’s on pace to be below the league average for the first time in his career. For reference, prior to allowing two home runs on Saturday, Canning owned a 2.3% home run rate. The next lowest of his career? 3.4%, with a 4.2% rate allowed last season.
With all that being said, Canning is unfortunately a candidate for some regression. His 1.29 WHIP, despite a 2.47 ERA, shows he has been working around traffic in his starts. Additionally, his 3.54 xERA further indicates that 2.47 actual figure may be a tad off his deserved performances.
Regardless, Canning has been really strong this season and arguably the most improved player in the big leagues. Even with some likely regression coming his way, he still has a very solid No. 3 ceiling. Something the Mets are certainly thrilled with given the one-year, $4.25 million deal he signed in the offseason.
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