Series Preview: Mets, Juan Soto Return to The Bronx
This edition of the Subway Series is going to be special. I can’t think of one in the regular season that has garnered this much buzz and anticipation. Juan Soto is set to make his return to The Bronx as a member of the New York Mets (28-16), who own a 2 1/2-game lead atop the NL East.
Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
So far, the New York Yankees (25-18) have looked just fine without the superstar outfielder. Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt and Ben Rice have guided an offense that leads all of baseball with 5.81 runs per game. The Mets and Yankees are two of the best teams in baseball, so expect that to showcase itself this weekend.
Let’s take a look at some notes for the three pitching matchups.
PITCHING MATCHUPS
- Friday: Tylor Megill (3-3, 3.10 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodón (4-3, 3.29 ERA): After pitching to a 1.74 ERA over his first six starts, Megill has hit his first bump in the road. He has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts, giving him a 7.45 ERA during that stretch. Megill has made a habit out of pitching extremely well in April, then following it up with different results in May and beyond. Can he change that narrative? Megill now owns a 5.97 ERA in May for his career. Rodón is having his best stretch of the season. Over his last five outings, he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. He has also thrown six innings or more in all of those starts, which is exactly what the Yankees need from him. Rodón has a career 0.84 ERA across 10 2/3 innings against the Mets.
- Saturday: Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.36 ERA) vs. Clarke Schmidt (1-1, 4.73 ERA): Canning’s surprise campaign continues to reach unforeseen levels. He has now made eight starts this season. In seven of them, he has given up two earned runs or less. The Mets are also 7-1 with Canning on the mound. The former Los Angeles Angel will make his second career start at Yankee Stadium and his first since April of 2023. Schmidt earned his first win of the season on Monday against the Seattle Mariners. He was scratched from a start earlier this month due to some soreness, but was able to return earlier this week. That’s potentially something to keep an eye on. Schmidt has made three starts at home this year, going 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA across 16 2/3 innings.
- Sunday: David Peterson (2-2, 3.05 ERA) vs. Max Fried (6-0, 1.11 ERA): Peterson has flown under the radar with the way Canning and Kodai Senga have pitched. The left-hander has allowed two earned runs or less in all eight of his starts. It is still a bit early, but it appears last season’s numbers were not a fluke. Peterson will look to keep it rolling against the Yankees, a team he is 0-0 against with a 6.23 ERA. Fried has been the best pitcher in baseball, providing a massive boost for the Yankees. With Gerrit Cole out for the season, someone needed to fill in as the team’s ace. Fried has certainly done that. He is 9-5 with a 2.48 ERA in 23 career appearances against the Mets. It’ll be interesting to see how the Mets’ offense fares against one of the game’s hottest arms.
WHAT’S THE STORY?
The title says it all. Soto’s return to the stadium he called home last season will dominate all the headlines, and rightfully so. After all, his sweepstakes were the talk of the offseason and resulted in the largest contract baseball has ever seen. Soto’s decision to sign with the Mets instead of the Yankees will be analyzed and discussed beyond this weekend. But for now, in the moment, this series and how he performs in it will be the focus. In nine career games against the Yankees, Soto is hitting .310 with a 1.274 OPS, totaling five home runs and 11 runs batted in. He has certainly excelled at Yankee Stadium too, slashing .283/.400/.579 in 84 games.
PREDICTION
This series is going to have a lot of twists and turns, or at least it is expected to. Soto is going to be the focus, and I think he will deliver a big offensive showing or two. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso will fly under the radar as a result, giving the Mets big hit after big hit in this marquee matchup. The Yankees could very well win this series, but I have the Mets taking two of three, continuing their dominance in this rivalry from a season ago.
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