Julio only robs one home run, Mariners thus lose to Yankees 3-2

On to the next

Grab a friend and do a dramatic reading of the first play of today’s game. You can play Dave Sims.

Dave Sims: “Julio going back on the track, looking up, juuuuumps. And. Let’s see. He made! — He did not get it. He did not get it. It’s a home run for Trent Grisham. Grisham, still checking —”
Suzyn Waldman: “No, he’s got it. He’s got it!”
Dave: “Oh, he did the psych out again?”
Suzyn: “Yes, he did.”
. . .
Dave: “He’s good in front of the camera.”
Suzyn: “Evidently.”

Evidently.

Luis Castillo then worked around hits from Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger with a pair of strikeouts to end the first inning without damage. Relying almost exclusively on his four-seamer and slider, Castillo got six whiffs on 17 swings with another five called strikes his first time through the order today.

But that was no match for what Will Warren did in his first time through the order. That started with a line out from Master Bunny (J.P. is day-to-day with “shoulder tightness”) and then struck out five consecutive Mariners (Polo, Julio, Cal, Randy, Rowdy).

By contrast, the second time through went better for Castillo than it did for Warren. The peak came early, with back-to-back strikeouts of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, and getting himself up to 12 whiffs. Those strikeouts took a toll on his pitch count though, and he was at 70 pitches before even getting out of the fourth inning.

Warren, meanwhile, picked up another three strikeouts at the cost of his pitch count, but also gave up two runs. Those runs started with a routine grounder between first and second base. But despite this being the second baseman’s ball, Warren ran to cover the bag, causing confusion at first base between him and Ben Rice, both looking around like they’d gotten to a party and were trying to find someone they knew. The second baseman (DJ LeMaheiu) ended up throwing the ball at both/neither of them. Neither really tried to catch it.

That got scored as an E4 despite it being anyone’s fault but LeMaheiu’s because the error rules are dumb and you can’t split errors. After the game, they changed that from an E4 to a hit, which isn’t right either. This is a prime use-case for my proposed “no-fault base,” which would be neither a hit nor an error and could also be used for things like sun doubles. In any event, Jorge Polanco came up next, and, realizing Warren had only thrown one of seven pitches in the zone in his first PA, stood there like a statue the second time for a four-pitch walk.

That brought up the home run robber himself, who very kindly plugged my piece from yesterday by swinging on a first pitch strike for a 104-mph double down the line that scored two. For those who missed that article, the upshot is that Julio is swinging at the first pitch way more than ever, and he is absolutely torching the ball when he does, without sacrificing his contact rate. Perhaps even more impressively, he’s limiting his increased aggression to first pitches that are thrown in the strike zone. His chase rate on the first pitch of an at-bat is only slightly elevated from his career norms; he’s not just up there swinging recklessly on the first pitch. And that’s what Julio did today, swinging on the two first pitches that were in the zone—once for that double—and laying off the two first pitches that were balls. So, for getting the Mariners’ only two RBIs today, showboating an epic home run robbery, and most importantly, for not ruining my narrative, Julio gets today’s Sun Hat Award.

Despite looking like he might have a short day, Castillo came back to rally with relatively breezy fifth and sixth innings. He even outdueled Warren when it came to defense, with the presence of mind to cover first base on what looked like it would probably be either a line out or a routine hit.

Despite giving up more hard contact than you’d like, the only real trouble came in the sixth, when back-to-back doubles from Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez resulted in a run. Overall, Castillo ended his six innings with 17 whiffs and six strikeouts (Judge twice) and just two walks. One of those walks ended on a 3-2 pitch that ought to have been strike three rather than ball four, so let’s call it 7 Ks, 1 BB.

Although Castillo went to his sinker and change up more often after the first time through, he still used his four-seamer and slider 79% of the time today. The slider was particularly good, for which he said, “All credit goes to the work the pitching coach and I did since the last start, correcting the little things that needed to be corrected.” His fastball, meanwhile, though still down a tick in velocity from Prime Castillo, had more life on it today than we’ve seen in a while.

But despite Castillo’s performance, the whole game felt like trying to hold back a tidal wave, and the Yankees offense eventually came through after the starters left the game. Gabe Speier and Carlos Vargas pitched symmetrical seventh and eighth innings, each giving up a lead off home run, then each recovering by easily dispatching the next three batters with two strikeouts apiece.

Vargas didn’t do himself any favors by hanging a slider middle-middle to the best hitter of his generation, but even with a better pitch, that shot felt inevitable. After holding him as in-check as anyone can hold Aaron Judge these days, you knew he wasn’t leaving Seattle without any ding dongs at all. His 118-mph shot went 444 feet, the 31st-farthest hit ball at less than 20 degrees in the Statcast Era, a blink-and-you-miss-it laser that went right through the bullpen and into the crowd gathered to watch the relievers warm up. It was Judge’s 11th home run in T-Mobile Park, his most anywhere outside his home AL East. I hate to highlight the Mariners’ back-breaking run, but it’s Aaron Judge. Credit where due.

After last night’s game, the Mariners realized they probably could not beat the Yankees by only scoring one run. So they went ahead and got two. And that was enough last night, but it won’t usually be enough against the 2025 New York Yankees, and it wasn’t today. That wraps up a lousy 1-5 homestand. But don’t let those who try to make other people miserable because they think it makes them sound savvy kill your vibe. I find it hard to take seriously the idea that this six-game sample represents the real offense, whereas the thirty-six games that came before were just a meaningless fluke. Both are real. Neither are real. This is why they have to play 162 of these.