Mets Unlucky With RISP in St. Louis

The Mets have played most of their last five games on the margins. New York outscored their opponents in those games, two against the Diamondbacks and three this weekend versus the Cardinals, 23 to 22. Unfortunately, plenty is left up to chance when you play on the margins.

And by chance, merit or otherwise, the Mets went 1-4 in those games.

If baseball was judged simply by how hard you hit the ball, and not where it goes and where your runners end up, the Mets would have Game 2 of Sunday’s doubleheader, 7-2. That is, in the sense that of the nine hardest-hit balls put into play, New York hit seven of them.

Of those seven batted balls, all 105.9 mph off the bat or higher, the Mets accumulated three singles, two groundouts (including a double play) and two flyouts. One of those flyouts came off the bat against Juan Soto and would have been a three-run home run in 13/30 ballparks. The irony is that Busch Stadium is not one of the 30, but the ball would have landed over the fence if not for the robbery of Victor Scott II.

Instead of that ball leaving the field and the Mets gaining a 7-4 lead, Michael McGreevy came onto the field from the bullpen and completely shut down New York. McGreeny threw 5 1/3 shutout innings, giving up just a solitary single to Mark Vientos and keeping the Mets at four runs for the rest of the game.

When a game is played on the margins, how each team does with runners in scoring position is crucial. The Mets Sunday night were 3-for-11, which on its surface isn’t poor. But those three were all on singles in the third inning, and that inning finished with multiple runners stranded.

How you get out with RISP can also matter greatly. Vientos was up in the fourth inning with the bases loaded and one out. A groundout could have resulted in that same 0-for-1 but with a run attached. Instead, the Mets third baseman struck out, and Brandon Nimmo followed that up with a lineout to end the inning (with an exit velocity of 107 mph and xBA of .630).

“That’s how baseball goes sometimes,” Carlos Mendoza said to the assembled media after the game, “It could be a little frustrating, but there’s nothing you can do about it.”

If you believe that run differential and exit velocity are more important in predicting future success than wins and hits, Sunday’s doubleheader loss doesn’t spell doom. But it sure doesn’t make things sting any less.

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