Brandon Nimmo Rapidly Heating Up

Just a short time ago, Brandon Nimmo seemed to be hitting a crossroads.

He wasn’t walking like he used to. His numbers were down across the board. They were particularly alarming when dating back to the second half of last year, although he was dealing with plantar fasciitis at the time.

But most of all, he’d lost his identity. He’d altered his approach to favor power and RBIs, but it was sacrificing his OBP and overall offensive game in the process. The Mets continued to trot him out at cleanup, but how much longer could they keep that up with his OPS not even clearing the .600 mark?

Well, those worries have been hushed, at least for now. Because, all of a sudden, Nimmo is actually starting to produce. And he’s doing it in a big way.

Nimmo made a statement with his historic 4-for-6, nine-RBI day on April 28 to break him out of a deep slump. He took an 0-for on Thursday, but he went right back at it Friday and had another well-rounded day at the dish. He went 3-for-3 and hit his seventh home run of the season, along with drawing two walks. His production was the highlight of an explosive performance for the Mets, who collected 17 hits in a 9-3 defeat of the Cardinals.

The two walks might be the most encouraging sign Nimmo displayed Friday, since that’s the one thing that’s oddly been missing from his game this year. He came into the game with just a 5.6% walk rate — not even half of what it was last year. And even last year’s number was about 3-4% lower than where he was earlier in his career. Walking less while also hitting less was an ugly combination.

But Nimmo worked a 3-1 count in his first plate appearance of the day, and took a close fastball at the upper edge of the zone on 3-2. He got his pitch in his next trip, lining a cutter down the middle at 107.2 mph off the bat to center field. He was perhaps luckier on his second hit, a 67.8 mph flare into left field on an outside changeup. But he added his ultimate damage to lead off the seventh inning, crushing one 407 feet at 105 mph off the bat to extend the Mets’ lead to 7-3.

It was a first-pitch swing for Nimmo, who’s still showing a penchant for being more aggressive. His swing rate is over 50% this year — it was down in the high-30s early in his career, and in the low-40s for most of his MLB seasons thus far. But perhaps the Nimmo we’ve seen recently is the more well-rounded version he’s been striving for — one who can take advantage of pitches in his wheelhouse but who can still draw walks when necessary. In his final plate appearance of the game, he took a 3-2 cutter below the zone after swinging and missing at a cutter on the previous pitch.

Suddenly, this power that Nimmo’s been searching for is appearing in games. Even entering the night, his 92.9 mph average exit velocity ranked in the top 10% of MLB and is the highest of Nimmo’s career. His isolated power (ISO) rose to .212 with Friday’s performance, which would be his highest in any season except 2018’s .219. That season was probably the most complete version of Nimmo, though he did strike a bit more often back then.

“A good hitter that is getting results,” Carlos Mendoza said of Nimmo after the game. “I don’t think he’s doing anything differently.”

Nimmo’s seven home runs in 31 games would give him about 37 over the course of a 162-game season.

The OBP still isn’t anywhere near where Nimmo is used to it being. Even after his two big games recently, it only sits at .279. His OPS, though, has gone from the .500s up to .720 in a short time. Now begins the arduous but attainable road of raising his OBP to support the boosted slugging.

A key to watch with Nimmo going forward is whether he can continue to mix some walks in there while he settles into this altered style. It’s a constant game of adjustments for Nimmo, trying to find the right balance between aggressiveness and passivity. Early in his career, he was sometimes criticized for not swinging enough, and perhaps the pendulum swung too far in the other direction at the beginning of this season.

But it’s a long season, and Nimmo is suddenly and loudly kicking it into gear.

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