Orioles series preview: The biggest disappointment in the league

The Orioles were hoping to be contenders, but have not played like it at all.

Not long after the Orioles fell to the Royals in the 2014 ALCS, the team fell into a rut and decided to embark on an aggressive rebuild. They stripped the team to the studs, endured some truly god awful seasons, but then rebounded to build the best farm system in baseball. That patience was rewarded in 2023 when they won 101 games and returned to the post-season. They made it again in 2024, but fell to the Royals in the Wild Card round. Nonetheless, they have one of the most talented young cores in baseball and seemed poised to be serious contenders in 2025.

Then April happened.

The Orioles have been atrocious in the first month of the season. They won just two series the entire month. They dropped 18 of 30, their worst month since September of 2021. They actually overperformed their pythag expectation, which had them at 10-20. That is largely due to some truly atrocious pitching blowouts - a 24-run outing against the Reds, and a 15-run blowup to the Yankees on Tuesday. Orioles pitching has been particularly terrible at home with opponents hitting .317/.389/.535 with 6.8 runs-per-game at Camden Yards.

Kansas City Royals (17-15) vs. Baltimore Orioles (12-18) at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD

Royals: 3.28 runs scored/game (28th in MLB), 3.44 runs allowed/game (4th)

Orioles: 4.00 runs scored/game (18th), 5.63 runs allowed/game (28th)

The offense hasn’t exactly been clicking lately either. The Orioles have scored more than four runs in a game once in the last ten tries - a five-run outburst on Wednesday to take the series against the Yankees. They have really struggled against lefties, hitting .172/.256/.236 against them, worst in baseball. The team is currently missing outfielders Colton Cowser and Tyler O’Neill, and infielder Jordan Westburg.

Orioles hitters have the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball. Ryan Mountcastle is just 3-for-38 (.079) in his last 12 games. Adley Rutschman has struggled to hit at home, batting .176/.266/.314 in Baltimore. Gunnar Henderson has the 15th-worst strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball.

Cedric Mullins has been a bright spot for the Orioles, and he is currently fifth in the American League in wRC+ and eighth in fWAR. His 20 walks are nearly half the total he had all of last year, and he’s even hitting lefties to the tune of .333/.500/.593. Former Royals first baseman Ryan O’Hearn continues to mash righties, hitting .317/.397/.600 against them and his 189 wRC+ against them is sixth-best in the league.

Only four teams have stolen fewer bases than the Orioles and only five teams have made more outs on the bases. Defensively, the Orioles are fifth-worst in Defensive Runs Saved at -9 and are second-worst at Outs Above Average with Henderson, Jackson Holliday, and Jorge Mateo all grading poorly.

Dean Kremer held the Royals to three runs (two earned) in 4 ¹⁄₃ innings in a start back in early April. The Orioles have been shut out in three of his starts, but he hasn’t pitched well either, with opponents hitting .310/.350/.550 against him. He is tied for the seventh-most home runs allowed this season and the fourth-highest home run rate. Opponents hit .139 against his splitter last year with a 36 percent whiff rate, but are hitting .400 against it this year with a 9.3 percent whiff rate.

Tomoyuki Sugano has been Baltimore’s best pitcher despite the second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. He a decent ERA, but he has outperformed his FIP by over two runs, the second-largest disparity in baseball. Sugano gave up just one run in 5 ¹⁄₃ innings in a win over the Royals back on April 5, and tossed five shutout innings in his last start against the Yankees. He relies heavily on a splitter and sweeper, generating a groundball rate of 47.3 percent.

The Orioles tried to address their pitching woes by signing veteran Kyle Gibson, but the former Mizzou pitcher was shelled in his first start. The 37-year-old was solid in 30 starts for the Cardinals last year, posting a 4.24 ERA and 45 percent groundball rate. He relies mostly on his sinker, throwing in a sweeper, curve, and change up. In 28 career games against the Royals he is 11-6 with a 4.00 ERA, and Salvador Perez is a lifetime 8-for-50 (.160) hitter against him with three home runs.

The Orioles bullpen has not been much better than the starters, with a 4.74 ERA, sixth-worst in baseball. All-Star closer Félix Bautista has returned after missing all of last year with injury. He has closed out all five of his save opportunities, but his velocity is not quite what it was pre-injury. Yennier Cano is one of six relievers with at least 10 innings pitched who have yet to allow an earned run. He has the tenth-highest groundball rate at 65.4 percent.

Seranthony Dominguez has the third-highest walk rate among relievers. Cionel Pérez has the seventh-highest ERA and opponents are hitting .382/.485/.582 against him. Veteran Charlie Morton was demoted to the bullpen after getting lit up in his five starts, but hasn’t fared much better as a reliever.

Royals hitters will be looking to get right against an Orioles pitching staff that is majorly struggling, but Orioles pitchers are likely also looking at Royals hitters as a way to turn their fortunes around. The Orioles are not playing like the contender we expected, but there is still a lot of talent there that could emerge at any time. The Royals are playing well, but they will have to continue to play well to take the series in Baltimore.