Top end projections

What could this team be?

“You don’t have a right to the cards you think you should have been dealt. You have an obligation to play the hell out of the ones you’re holding”.

- author Cheryl Strayed

I just love this quote from Cheryl Strayed, the author of the book Wild. If you’re unfamiliar with Strayed, she’s a woman who pulled her life together by hiking the Pacific Coast Trail. She then wrote an excellent book about the experience, and the story was later made into a movie starring Reese Witherspoon.

When looking at the Royals, it poses two questions:

Are the players on the current roster playing the hell out of their cards? My answer to that is yes, I believe they are. I don’t see any lack of effort or passion from this group. In the past, there has occasionally been a player who appeared to be mailing it in. The most recent iteration of that player shall remain nameless, but suffice to say, he’s no longer playing major league baseball.

Secondly, as fans of this team, are we playing the hell out of it? My guess on this would be no, we are not. I get the feeling that we’re still on the fence, waiting for this group to show us something before we commit. Various message boards about the Royals are typically slanted negatively. We’re still grousing about the front offices’ inability to acquire or develop a decent corner outfielder. Hence, we focus our vitriol on the men currently busting their asses trying to hold onto those spots.

Attendance could be better. The Royals are currently 10th out of 15 teams. Yes, it’s still early in the season and the weather has been like Midwest weather always is in April, which means beautiful one day and crappy the next. Yes, the kids are still in school, which makes weeknight games a challenge for families. Yes, the team is hovering around .500. Yes, the cost of parking is kind of outrageous. I understand and agree with those things. Still, this is our team and if you love baseball and specifically Royals baseball, we need to get behind them with our support.

The other day I was watching the Royals, daydreaming about how this team could end up in the World Series. Seriously. I’m talking about the 2025 Royals. What kind of performance would the top ten position players have to produce to conceivably get the Royals into the Series? The Dodgers won it all last year with their top ten producing about 39 WAR. The Yankees made the series with their top ten producing only about 29 WAR. Of course, Aaron Judge was worth 10 of that (while Shohei was worth about 9 to the Dodgers).

For the Royals, if their pitching staff is anywhere close to where the starters were in 2024 with the 2025 bullpen, the staff will be okay. Any serious injury, to say Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic or Lucas Erceg and all bets are off.

For the position players, I’ve formulated a dream season of what they’d need to reach for the Royals to be serious World Series contenders. Working around the infield:

• Vinnie Pasquantino – if Vinnie can produce close to what he did in 2024, it’ll be a win. It was only a 1.1 WAR season, even though he drove in close to 100 runs and was clutch in run-scoring situations. A dream season for Vinnie would be something like 1972 John Mayberry. Big John slashed .298/.394/.507 that season with 25 home runs, 24 doubles, 65 runs scored, and 100 RBI while drawing 78 walks. That was a 4.9 WAR season.
• Michael Massey – If Massey can stay healthy, his top comp would be 1973 Cookie Rojas. That summer, Cookie slashed .276/.320/.372 with 6 home runs, 69 RBI, 29 doubles and scored 77 runs. That was a 2.50 WAR season for Cookie.
• Jonathan India – India was brought in to get on base and set the table for Bobby, Vinnie and Sal. The comp here is 1971 Paul Schaal. Schaal was terrific that summer, slashing .274/.387/.412 with 11 home runs, 63 RBI, 103 walks while scoring 80 runs worth 4.50 WAR. I think those were numbers the Royals dreamed about when they traded for India.
• Maikel Garcia – Garcia’s hot start has been a pleasant surprise. A comp for Maikel would be 2010 Mike Aviles. Aviles was an often-overlooked and underrated player. Aviles could play all over the infield and slashed .325/.354/.450 that summer with 10 home runs, 27 doubles and 51 RBI worth 4.70 WAR. I’m not sure Maikel can hit .325, but I do believe he has the talent to produce better home run, doubles and RBI numbers than Aviles put up.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – There are no past comps for Bobby. He’s the best shortstop that Kansas City has ever had and if he’s anything close to what he was in 2024, we’ll take it with open arms. Let’s hope 2025 Bobby can do between 7 and 9 WAR.
• Sal Perez – Sal is a Royal institution but unfortunately Father Time is going to catch him sooner rather than later. If he could say, turn back the clock to 2022 Sal, I’d be thrilled. Perez slashed .255/.292/.422 that summer with 23 home runs and 80 RBI which was worth 2.70 WAR. Any production above that is just gravy. I couldn’t think of any past Royal catchers to comp Sal to, other than Sal. He’s too old to produce Darrel Porter-type numbers or even peak Sal numbers, so 2022 Sal it is.
• Freddy Fermin – Much like Bobby and Vinnie, if Freddie could somehow duplicate his 2024 numbers, we’d take them in a hot minute. If not, how about 1983 Don Slaught? Slaught was a fine catcher who appeared in 83 games that summer and slashed .312/.336/.388. He didn’t hit any home runs (Freddie had 6 last summer) but did rap 13 doubles and drove in 28 runs, all good for 1.2 WAR. I believe Freddie can put up better numbers than this.
• Drew Waters – It’s starting to look like Waters wants to keep an outfield job. He’s been hitting better and has some speed. If he can replicate 2013 David Lough, we’ll take it. Lough was a surprise breakout in 2013, slashing .286/.311/.413 with five home runs and 33 RBI which was good for 2.40 WAR.
• Kyle Isbel – What is Isbel’s upper limit? How about 2003 Aaron Guiel? Older fans will remember Guiel, a gritty, hustling outfielder on some terrible Royal teams. In 2003, he chipped in with a .277/.346/.489 mark with 15 home runs, 30 doubles and 52 RBI worth 1.80 WAR. With Isbel’s defense, I’d take those offensive numbers.
• Finally, we get to the much-maligned Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe got hot last summer before an injury waylaid him. If he can somehow regain that form and channel 2011 Jeff Francoeur, we’d embrace him. Frenchy slashed .285/.329/.476 that season with 20 home runs, 47 doubles and 87 RBI worth 3.20 WAR.

There you have it, my dream summer. Assuming Bobby does about 8 WAR, the totals come out to about 36 WAR, which based on last season, if the pitching holds, might be enough to get the Royals into the World Series. Granted, there’s some heavy lifting here. Guys like Waters, Isbel and Garcia would have to have career years. Salvy and Renfroe are going to have to turn back the clock. Can it happen? Sure, anything is possible. Will it happen? I wouldn’t place a six-figure bet on it.

Like I said earlier, an injury, or two, to any of the key pitchers (or Bobby) would most likely toast the season. In the meantime, it’s fun to dream about what could happen. The weather is warming up and we’re heading into the meat of the season. See you at the ballpark.