Astros series preview: Houston, the offense has a problem

Astros sluggers haven’t quite slugged yet.

The Astros have had a terrific run with playoff appearances in nine of the last ten seasons with two titles over that time. But last year they won 88 games, their fewest total in a full season since 2016. A change in management has led to a new direction and the core of the team that has had so much success has begun to erode, with Carlos Correa in Minnesota, Kyle Tucker in Chicago, and Alex Bregman now in Boston.

The Astros are off to a decent start this year, and have won five of their last six, including a home sweep against the Blue Jays where they allowed two total runs. They haven’t given up more than four runs in a game in their last eight games, including two shutouts.

Houston Astros (13-11) vs. Kansas City Royals (12-14) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Astros: 3.83 runs scored/game (23rd in MLB), 3.38 runs allowed/game (4th)

Royals: 3.23 runs scored/game (27th), 3.85 runs allowed/game (6th)

The lineup has struggled however, batting .220/.292/.331 on the road with just 3.5 runs-per-game. They have a very right-handed heavy lineup, and are batting just .239/.313/.350 against right-handers. MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez has had a power outage with just five extra base hits so far this year.

Longtime Astros All-Star Jose Altuve is a career .271/.346/.411 in 71 games against the Royals. He has moved to the outfield this year and already has -6 Defensive Runs Saved, among the worst among outfielders. Isaac Paredes has a 56.3 percent pull rate, one of the highest in baseball.

Catcher Yainer Diaz has the fourth-highest swing rate in baseball at 57.9 percent. Cam Smith, a 22-year-old rookie acquired from the Cubs for Tucker, is starting to heat up, batting .273/.333/.523 with three home runs in his last 13 games.

Only the Royals and Blue Jays have hit fewer home runs than the Astros. Shortstop Jeremy Pena has been one of the best defenders in baseball and Cam Smith has adjusted to moving from third to right field well so far.

Hayden Wesnewski was part of the Tucker trade after spending the last three seasons with the Cubs as a swingman. He has yet to give up more than three runs in a start this year and struck out 10 against the Angels two starts ago, although he also gave up three home runs. Wesnewski throws a very effective sweeper that had a 43 percent whiff rate last year, with opponents hitting just .160 against it this year.

Framber Valdez tossed seven shutout innings against the Mets on Opening Day, but has given up 14 runs in 21 innings since then. The lefty has a career 2.61 ERA in 20 2/3 innings at Kauffman Stadium. Valdez has a career 62 percent groundball rate, although it has fallen to 51.9 percent this year, the lowest rate of his career. Valdez throws a sinker half the time, mixing in a change up, slider, and a curve that opponents hit just .121 against last year.

Hunter Brown has not allowed a run in his last three starts, covering 21 innings. He has the 13th-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio and the 12th-highest groundball rate. Opponents are hitting just .057 against his 97 mph fastball this year. He gave up nine runs in less than an inning in an April start against the Royals last year, but returned to give up two unearned runs in 6 ²⁄₃ innings in August.

The Astros bullpen has been great this year with a 2.62 ERA, fourth-lowest in baseball, and they have the second-highest strikeout rate. Josh Hader is fifth in baseball with seven saves, and he has struck out 35 percent of opponents. Lefty Steven Okert has a 38 percent strikeout rate and has yet to walk anyone this year. Opponents hit just .147 against Tayler Scott’s fastball last year, but his velocity has declined this year. Opponents are hitting just .119/.196/.214 against Bryan King this year.

The Royals swept the Astros at home last April, and this year they find a Houston team struggling on offense. After a sweep of the Rockies, they have a chance to make this a successful homestand and get their season back on track.