2025 Mets Pitching Preview: Edwin Diaz

Sound the trumpets! It’s time for Edwin Diaz’s 2025 pitching preview.

Diaz returned to the mound in 2024 after missing the entirety of the 2023 season due to a tendon tear in his right knee. Throughout last season questions were looming about Diaz’s “stuff.” Some analysts were speculating that he wasn’t at his full capacity coming back from his injury. Another angle of commentators said he lacked a bit of confidence. (Throw a 10-game suspension into the middle of all that due to alleged sticky stuff on his hands during a game, which didn’t lend confidence.)

This was put on full display during game 161 against the Braves when Diaz came in in the eighth inning and blew the Mets three-run lead. Even with this setback, Carlos Mendoza put his trust in Diaz to finish the game, and that he did. Questions are now looming about Diaz’s decreased velocity. Will Mendoza’s belief in Diaz be as strong this year as last year? While Diaz did have a bit of a down year relative to his statistics, look for Diaz to improve for the 2025 season.   

Diaz had a relatively high 3.52 ERA last year—the second-highest in his nine-year career, while compiling 20 saves. He had a 14.09 K/9 ratio, which was above the league average of 8.6, but this was also the second-lowest ratio of his career.

The Mets closer consists of a two-pitch arsenal: fastball and slider. He threw them almost at an even 50-50%—the fastball 475 times and his slider 437 times.

The fastball is Diaz’s bread and butter. He uses this pitch often to get ahead in the count on the batter, which can explain why he had a higher called strike rate for this pitch at 16.2%. His average velocity on his fastball was 97.5 mph last year, a tick down from 2022. Diaz’s average fastball velocity this spring was just 95.7 mph, which is quite the contrast, causing and fans the media to grow concerned.

Despite the dip in velocity, when Diaz has command of his fastball, he can use his two-pitch arsenal effectively to get batters out. Once Diaz establishes the zone with his fastball, he likes to keep the batters guessing with his slider. The slider is Diaz’s wipeout pitch. He tallied a 20.4% swing and miss rate for this pitch. When Diaz can locate his slider, it is a lethal pitch. 

It was a bit of a roller coaster ride with Diaz last year. Sometimes he had his perineal stuff, showing why he’s one of the most reliable relievers in the game. Other times he would blow big leads leaving Mets fans frustrated with his performance. One thing that remained constant throughout the season was Mendoza’s unwavering faith in his closer. Having a manager that is backing you for every closing moment is great to have in your corner. Mendoza gave Diaz a long leash last year. There isn’t as much distance between Diaz and the next group of relievers anymore—at least from a closing perspective. That leash should be shorter this year. Hopefully Diaz won’t need it and will be a more consistent version of his 2022 All-Star self.

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