Mariners AL West rivals preview: Astros Pt. 4 - 2025 Prognosis

So you say you want a revolution?

The final prognosis is one that various wildly upon your assessment of the new pieces of the Houston Astros puzzle. With the departures of Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander (again), and Ryan Pressley, an increasingly unfamiliar collection of Astros defends their dynasty alongside now-left fielder Jose Altuve, DH Yordan Alvarez, and a pitching staff that still resembles its recent years.

2025 FanGraphs Depth Charts projections: 84.1-77.9, 2nd in AL West, 53.7% playoff odds

2025 PECOTA projections: 88.2-73.8, 2nd in AL West, 71.7% playoff odds

With the shuffling and shuttling of players with major facial recognition, it shouldn’t be surprising per se that Seattle boasts the two strongest individual player projections among this pairing. However, despite taking the season-long projection by a nose, Seattle does cede the total number of projected position leads to Houston.

If It All Goes Right

Swinging through tears of joy at the chance to aim for the Crawford Boxes 81 times a year, Isaac Paredes puts together a season to shame 2019 Alex Bregman in terms of wall-scraper home runs. That power surge put Tucker’s departure in lower case letters in the spiritual catalogue of every Astros fan, particularly with the emergence of Cam Smith as a Rookie of the Year winner amidst a thin field. That victory not only helped tote the ‘Stros to the AL West crown once more, but earned them a PPI selection for the following year. A pitching staff that held together just enough was anchored by Hunter Brown’s ascension, highlighted by a late season gem to stifle Seattle over 8+ frames and put the nail in the coffin to any divisional threat. They look forward not just as reigning champs, but an ongoing threat.

If it All Goes Wrong

Have you watched Jose Altuve play left field at all this spring? Do yourself a favor, give it a peek. That’s a season-long blunder, as the yips-prone Lilliputian parlays a stressful spring without any more of his veteran stars alongside him into a cliff at last in his mid-30s. That spells catastrophe for a Houston club which cannot stem a tsunami of pitching disasters, with a clearly-diminished series of returns from injury by veterans like Lance McCullers Jr., and dwindling efficacy from Josh Hader. Losing game after game 8-5, Houston gets an extended look at their young prospects, enough to know they won’t be the immediate answer to extending the window of contention as they instead are scrambling to sell at the All-Star Break for the first time in a decade or more.