40 in 40 2025: Jackson Kowar
Waiting for Jackson to come back, son
It’s hard not to compare Jackson Kowar to Brady Singer. The two pitched together at the University of Florida and were taken by the same team (the Royals) in the 2018 Draft, both in the first round. But from there, their journeys took different paths. Singer skyrocketed through the minors, making the roster for 2020’s Opening Day (such as it was). He quickly proved himself an MLB-caliber pitcher, and threw 685 innings of 4.28 ERA ball before being traded to Cincinnati this winter. Kowar, meanwhile, lost all his command. His record stands at 74 innings with, and I swear this is not a typo, a 9.12 ERA. There is, as you know, no such things as a pitching prospect.
But for someone drafted in the same class as Logan Gilbert and Cal Raleigh, Kowar still does feel very prospect-y. Or at the very least, like an unfinished product. The big problem for Kowar was that as soon as he got to the big leagues in 2021, he forgot where the strike zone is. But this truly was sudden. His walk rate exploded from single-digits in the minors to a sudden 13% in limited MLB action in 2021, then jumping to 13.4% and 14.6% over the next two seasons following a move to the bullpen. But that doesn’t mean his fate is sealed as the wildest man in the west.
For one thing, the Royals have good pitching now, but most of that is about Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha, so I’m not convinced KC’s pitching reflects anything about their pitching development, which was a national joke for most of Kowar’s tenure there. Seattle’s, on the other hand, is famously pretty good. Kowar only threw two innings for Seattle during 2024 Spring Training, but he looked sharp, retiring all six batters he faced, with three strikeouts. That doesn’t mean Seattle fixed him, obviously, but it’s at least not inconsistent with the hypothesis.
Unfortunately, those two innings are all we’ve seen, as he popped his UCL and has spent the past year recovering from Tommy John surgery. But that may not be the worst thing in the world: The loss of command was so sudden, that I can’t help but wonder if the problem is at least partly in his head and the downtime recovering from injury will do him some good. Again, who can say. Jackson Kowar’s an unfinished product.
Projections
FanGraphs Depth Charts: 35.0 IP, 0.0 fWAR, 4.33/4.36 ERA/FIP
PECOTA: 20.0 IP, -0.1 WARP, 5.02/4.44 ERA/DRA
Overs/Unders
Anders: Over, and god help us for the fresh round of Jarred Kelenic discourse that will come with it.
Kate: Over
Kowar’s injury was so disappointing last spring because he looked awesome in those two short outings. He’s totally bought into what the Mariners are trying to do–easy to do when he has two former teammates in Gabe Speier and Collin Snider as pitchmen for the organization–and he’s got a bit of a chip on his shoulder because he feels like he hasn’t performed to the level he knows he’s able to in the bigs. I predict he’s going to be a big storyline when he returns from injury, hopefully somewhere around May.