40 in 40 2025: Blake Hunt

Many blessings to catchers waiting in AAA to provide emergency flooring.

How do you solve a problem like AAA backup catchers? How do you catch a cat, and box it down? I do not know if Erwin Schrödinger was ever a fan of baseball, but I do know I will always think of his feline based theoretical concepts when having to weigh the potential value of a player who may, or may not, see any playing time in the coming season (the last player to have me evoke the physicist was Evan White). Enter, Blake Hunt. Or rather, re-enter.

Hunt first joined the Mariner’s organization in the off-season before 2024, coming over in a trade when Seattle sent C Tatem Levins to the Rays. After 86 plate appearances on the Tacoma Rainiers with a 11.6% strikeout rate and a .293/.372/.533 line, Hunt was traded to the Baltimore Orioles on May 22nd for RHP Mike Baumann and C Michael Pérez, neither of which was with the club by the end of July. Blake never rose above AAA for either club, and by season-end his numbers normalized to a 24.6% strikeout rate and a .218/.273/.364 line, across 260 total plate appearances.

In last year’s 40 in 40, Kate highlighted how he is on a prep catcher’s journey, and all the high variance of risk and reward that comes with that, and I wouldn’t be writing this if Hunt’s current last stop on that journey was with Baltimore. In the cold middle of January, the Mariners re-acquired Hunt from the Orioles, sending cash considerations in return. If he sticks in the organization longer than last time, his path to playing time with the big league club might be more complicated than it could have been last year.

Last season Mitch Garver was starting out given a full time designated hitter role, and the backup catcher roster on the 26-man was filled by Seby Zavala. It is easy to see a world where instead of Zavala, who would go on to play 18 games with Seattle with a 37.2% strikeout rate and a 45 wRC+, the Mariners would have opted for Hunt and his better plate discipline and exists-pop. They didn’t, much to my chagrin, and a mid-season change of having Garver return to being the backup catcher as well as being a DH is expected to carry over into this season. Now, short of injury or Garver being moved back to a full-time DH, there is no clear path for playing time above AAA. Even then, the organization might decide to test the waters with one of their top prospects in Harry Ford, who inches ever closer.

Both the if and the maybe collectively can lead to wide skews in the projections, in Hunt’s case anywhere from six plate appearances to over two hundred and fifty. There is, of course, always the possibility that Hunt simply plays his way into opportunity. The only thing worse than a small sample size is a small spring training sample size, but so far he has been flashed good in ten plate appearances, racking four hits including two doubles and a home run. Blake Hunt may be lined up to wait in the box that is AAA, but who knows, maybe he bats his way out of it. -B.E.

Projections:

FGDC: 6 PA, 68 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR, .199/.254/.321

PECOTA: 251 PA, 62 DRC+, -0.1 WARP, .204/.255/.313

Overs/Unders:

Kate: Under? Over?

I’m admittedly not a STEM girly, but I’m not sure how to respond to a projection system that sees a range of 6-251 PAs for possible outcomes. I think Hunt is a better slugger than either of those two numbers up there, but I also think Mitch Garver will allow the backup catcher job to be taken out of his cold dead hands, so I’m not sure what Hunt’s route to playing time looks like in Seattle barring an injury. So yeah, somewhere between six and 251.

Zach: Push

How strong is the combination of positional adjustment for catchers and park adjustment for T-Mobile right now? Seby Zavala hit .154/.214/.282 while striking out thirty-seven percent of the time last year and still hit replacement level. It’s hard to imagine Blake Hunt being any worse in a similar role.

Anders: Under

If Hunt is starting enough games to hit the over, something has gone wrong (Raleigh/Garver injury + Ford not being ready) so I’m going to be optimistic and say I don’t think he gets into enough games. Nothing personal, Blake!