Another Implausible Trade Idea Analyzed in Three Ways.

Previously this offseason I had introduced a method of analyzing trade ideas and also proposed an implausible trade scenario to examine with this method. A few months later the masthead wrote an article about the same trade idea, which suggest to me at the very least that other people around here think about some of this stuff the same way that I do. In this article I will propose an equally improbably trade scenario and why it is worth thinking about. This scenario will be analyzed through the same methods as the previous trade proposal.

The Trade Proposal

Let’s start with the trade, then discuss why it’s improbable as well as why it’s an interesting thought experiment, and what they teams will likely end up doing once they don’t make this trade.

Mariners get Masataka Yoshida, Lucas Giolito, and Kristian Campbell.

Red Sox get Luis Castillo, Mitch Haniger, Cole Young, and probably something or someone else.

Why it is improbable

The most improbable thing about this is Luis Castillo waiving his no trade clause to pitch in Boston. Maybe something like making the vesting option guaranteed will be sufficient to make this trade happen, but if so that would increase the trade cost and it might make it unpalatable for either side.

Why should we consider this trade idea?

This is an interesting thought experiment for a few reasons. The Red Sox have definitely had an interest in Castillo this winter so might be motivated to make a trade for that reason. They have also been trying to get the Mariners to take Yoshida in any Castillo trade. They have a lot of lefthanders, so switching Yoshida for Haniger would balance their lineup somewhat (especially if one looks at Adrian Beltre as a test case of what can happen when a player goes from T-Mobile to Fenway). There also has been a lot of infielders bickering about who is playing which position and some of that discussion has centered around veterans saying that they don’t think Campbell and Mayer should be considered for starting roles during spring training.

From the Mariners perspective, this trade does have some interesting considerations as well. Notably, they have a hole at 2nd base that Campbell would be much better at stepping into at the start of the season than Young would. Yoshida is a definite upgrade from Haniger in a lineup that looks pretty thin, and likely also will have more opportunities to play in the outfield than he did with the Red Sox. This deal will save them around 9 million dollars between 2026 and 2027, which has been a long stated goal of this front office. Giolito was once a good pitcher, and might get back to something like that pitching in T-Mobile. And if not, he is fine as the 5th starter on this team and is gone in a year. Being gone in a year opens a space for someone in the Hancock, Evans, Garcia, Morales pile to step up, or they could even sign a hat in hand free agent pitcher like they’d been doing before all their prospects started to hit.

Evaluating this trade proposal

So let’s look at the three valuations and see how this adds up:

nWfs:

This is simply the projection of Wins for each player for 2025. I’m simply using what is projected on Fangraphs for each player.

Gioloti 1.5

Yoshida 1

Campbell 1.2

Castillo 2.8

Haniger 0

Young 0.6

The nWfs is pretty close with the Mariners getting slightly more projected value at 3.7 vs 3.4. This is largely because 1 WAR goes a long way when you have massive holes to fill. The Red Sox aren’t losing anyone that they don’t have someone similar or better to step in to replace. And maybe the last piece ends up being something that gets this even closer to even.

tnW:

Here I make predictions for the remainder of the time under contract for each player. Probably the least accurate portion of the entire discussion, as we shall see.

Gioloti 1.5

Yoshida 2.5

Campbell 18

Castillo 8.3

Haniger 0

Young 12

I’m probably way off on Campbell and Young here, but this is very close if I am correct. These two players have the highest variance of the group: Campbell is probably going to be better than Young, but not necessarily, and either one of them could end up not even being a fulltime starter for the entirety of their club control. But outside of that variance, Castillo is worth twice the value that the veterans going to the Mariners will be worth.

Woamv

I’m just going to go with BTV here, as that’s what people wanted the last time.

Gioloti -7.1

Yoshida -29.2

Campbell +54.7

Castillo +7.1

Haniger -15.5

Young +22.2

Mariners are giving up 13.8 million in value. Red Sox are giving up 18.4 million in value. The difference between those could just be how far off BTV is on valuations. But assuming that is correct, the Mariners could throw in a bullpen piece, Dominic Canzone, a top 15 prospect, or some cash to cover about a third of Haniger’s salary. The Red Sox might appreciate the cash to keep them under the luxury tax. And they might even be able to package Haniger with prospects in any deadline deals to help keep them under that threshold if necessary.

What happens when it doesn’t occur

The Mariners will probably just give Young a month in Tacoma before handing him the 2nd base job and continue to be atrocious at DH. The Red Sox can just have Campbell play mostly in CF this year until Story gets hurt. Maybe they will reconsider something like this as the trade deadline approaches, but more than likely they will either be out of it or find someone who is to do their trading with. Which could mean they do find a trade that works, but it's probably not this one.