The Reds starting rotation is mostly set, unless...

Who breaks camp in the starting five? Or, will it be a starting six?

Hunter Greene once landed the single highest signing bonus in MLB Draft history as the #2 overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft.

The expectations on him were obscene, especially given that he was picked at just 17 years of age. As arm injuries, the loss of the 2020 minor league season, and impatience mounted, it became the lazy, easy way out to critique his first two big league seasons as meh as he pitched to a 4.62 ERA/4.31 FIP across 237.2 IP in 2022-2023.

Then, in 2024, at still just 24 years of age, Greene emerged as a legitimate ace of the Cincinnati Reds. He fired 150.1 IP of 2.75 ERA/3.47 FIP ball, made his first All Star appearance, picked up some down ballot NL Cy Young Award votes, and tied Detroit Tigers ace (and AL Cy Young Award winner) Tarik Skubal with 6.3 bWAR for the season - the highest mark of any pitcher in baseball.

Greene isn’t just the Reds ace, he enters his age-25 season as a legitimate ace among all of his peers. He’ll lead Cincinnati’s starting rotation in 2025, but there are still some questions remaining about who’ll back him in that unit.

We’ll lay out the options here today.

The obvious incumbent

Nick Martinez was issued a Qualifying Offer (QO) by the Reds after turning down his option for the 2025 season after posting a rock solid (and career best) 2024 campaign. He ultimately accepted, returning to the Reds for a year at $21.05 million. He’s been used to great effect as both a reliever and starter, but it’s hard to envision him in any role other than starter given what the team is doling out to him this year.

Will they be ready to go?

Andrew Abbott, when healthy, has been an excellent mid-rotation arm for the Reds, even if his peripherals (4.67 FIP in 247.1 IP) have been worse than his actuals (3.78 ERA). A shoulder issue ended his 2024 season early, however, and there’s been precious little information about how he’s a) recovered and b) built up for the 2025 season. He’ll surely be a big part of this rotation when 100%, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be 100% on Opening Day (or if the Reds will slow play him a bit to make sure he’s still stretched-out enough to pitch for them down a September stretch run).

Nick Lodolo has been something of the anti-Abbott in that his peripherals (4.18 FIP in 253.0 IP) have been better than his actuals (4.52 ERA). Of course, he’s battled a litany of injuries for so long that it’s hard to truly know what he’s capable of when in a thorough groove, as shin and finger and [insert all manner of seemingly non ‘serious’ injuries] have plagued him in each of his trio of years in the big leagues. When right, he’s the 1A on this depth chart, and the hope is that happens from the outset in 2025, but we’re forever in wait and see mode with Lodolo until it happens consistently.

The New Guy

Brady Singer was acquired from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for Jonathan India early this offseason, and it became pretty clear the Reds had targeted the former University of Florida product to be a cog in their rotation for the next few years. His durabiilty has been his calling card (153+ IP in each of the last three seasons), and in theory he’ll provide stability to a rotation that’s had far too many moving parts in previous years - ideally with similar production (4.28 ERA/3.97 FIP) despite moving to an extreme hitter’s park as his home from an extreme pitcher’s park.

On the shelf

Brandon Williamson and Julian Aguiar combined for 10 starts for Cincinnati down the stretch last year, though both saw their seasons end late with elbow issues that required Tommy John surgery. They’ll both be moved to the 60-day IL as soon as possible and will almost certainly be out for the entirety of the 2025 season.

On the shelf (for now)

Wade Miley was brought in on a minor league deal, though the idea is that he’ll be ready from his own 2024 Tommy John surgery by some point in May. The 38 year old has never gone through such a serious procedure before, however, and it remains to be seen how his vintage precision (in lieu of velocity) recovers after such major surgery. In theory, he’ll give the Reds a mid-season boost of durability that can help get them through the 162 game grind, though that’s obviously a question mark until we see it happen.

Are they starting depth, or relief options?

As I mentioned earlier in the look at Cincinnati’s bullpen options, each of Graham Ashcraft, Connor Phillips, and Lyon Richardson have some of the best pure stuff in the Reds system, but their ability to throw strikes that don’t get hammered has come into question. Will the Reds choose to keep them stashed in AAA and stretched out as starting depth from day one? Or, will one or two of them - almost certainly Ashcraft - be kept in the big league bullpen as a multi-inning option in relief? Carson Spiers, to a lesser extent, will be in the very same scenario, though (barring injury) I believe he’s slated for a season beginning in Louisville.

The non-roster options

Here’s the future of the Cincinnati rotation, or at least a big part of it.

Both Chase Petty and Chase Burns will be non-roster invitees to big league camp in Goodyear, and the pair of 2003 babies will get to work with the big league staff (and big league catchers) from the get-go. Petty, who made it to AAA to finish his 2024 season, is fully recovered from a forearm injury that throttled him a bit in 2023, and would appear to be slated for a AAA start to 2025 that leaves him on the cusp of his first call-up. Burns, the team’s 1st round pick from the 2024 draft, has yet to throw a professional pitch just yet, but could end up a fast mover that impacts the rotation plans as early as late 2025 if things go well.

Does the last line sound familiar?

The Opening Day Wild Card

Rhett Lowder, a Wake Forest product like Burns, was the team’s 1st round pick in 2023 and worked his way all the way to the majors in his first year of pro ball in 2024. In his 30.2 IP with the Reds, he succeeded in keeping earned runs off the board (just 4), but did so with something of a smoke and mirrors approach relative to his elite command in the minors. Lowder is firmly in the mix to get 20-25 starts with the Reds in 2025, with the only question being whether that’s from Opening Day on or if they’ll bring him along slowly.

He did throw 139.1 IP combined between the majors and minors last year, and perhaps that has him stretched out enough to be expected to command a load of 175 IP in 2025, but it would not surprise me in the slightest if the Reds chose to bring him along a bit slowly to start the year, too.

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Will the Reds stick to a five-man rotation? Or, given their relative depth, will the lean into a six-man rotation to lighten the early season load on some of their young arms?

If everyone is healthy (and if they stick to the five-man scheme), I think the obvious pecking order is a combination of Martinez, Singer, Lodolo, and Abbott behind Greene, with Lowder ready to rotate in at the first sign of disruption.

With pitchers and catchers reporting today, February 10th, we’ll begin to get our first glimpse at how healthy each of the parties involved is, and the shake-out that comes with that.