Elephant Rumblings: A’s projected to place last in AL West

MLB news roundup

Happy Wednesday, Athletics Nation!

The A’s improved to 69-93 in 2024 after losing over 100 games in 2022 and 2023; the latter of those two seasons was the nadir of Oakland-era A’s baseball as the team staggered to a 50-112 finish in their penultimate campaign at the Coliseum.

However, the team began to improve markedly around midway through the 2024 season, playing .500 ball after the All-Star break. The young roster seems to be gelling somewhat at last, and the A’s front office has been more aggressive this offseason, looking to boost payroll to improve the team as their inaugural season in Sacramento approaches—and apparently to avoid scrutiny from the players union for not investing revenue sharing dollars in their on-field product.

In light of these positive trends, some may feel that the A’s have a shot at a winning record in 2025, and perhaps even to sneak into Wild Card contention. But the prognosticators at Baseball Prospectus do not share this view: they are projecting for the season ahead that the A’s will improve only slightly to about 70 or 71 wins while sliding back into last place in the AL West behind the Angels, who finished at the bottom of the division in 2024.

On the winning end, Prospectus has the Rangers surging back into contention this year and ending the Astros’ run of four consecutive AL West titles.

I think the A’s are likely to outperform this projection. No doubt, my “general sense of things” based on watching lots of A’s baseball lacks the sophistication of BP’s PECOTA model. But my gut feeling is strong here—and I think the A’s will play closer to .500 ball this year. It’s not easy to predict how such a young team will pan out, but if you want to pin me down to a number, fine: my guess is a 79-83 record for the A’s this year.

My general sense of things also tells me that my guess is slightly less optimistic than some of yours. Is it? Share your feelings below on the season ahead!

A’s Coverage:

• Who’s Projected for the Top and Bottom of the AL West?
• Two-way prospect from Japan player to watch
• A’s Masher Wants to Measure up to Memphis Grizzlies and Duke Sharpshooter

MLB News & Interest:

• Projected 2025 standings and playoff odds are here
• All of the 2024-2025 free agents, position by position
• Cubs Acquire Ryan Brasier
• Voter who snubbed Ichiro still unknown as BBWAA releases Hall of Fame ballots ($)
• Orioles Sign Ramón Laureano
• Cardinals, Red Sox Have Reportedly Had “Recent Communication” On Arenado
• Bobby Witt Jr.’s omission from ‘The Show’ cover, Phillies’ upcoming big decisions and more MLB notes ($)
• Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Miller ranks 78th on the MLB Top 100.

Ramón on the move again.