PECOTA gives Royals a 31 percent chance of making the playoffs

Baseball Prospectus projects 81 wins for the Royals.

The Royals were surprise contenders last year, improving by 30 wins. But if the make the playoffs again this year, it won’t be as much of a stunner, at least according to PECOTA projections.

Baseball Prospectus has come out with their annual projected standings based on current rosters, and they have the Royals with a 31 percent chance of returning to the post-season. The Royals average 81 wins in their simulations, second-best in the division behind the Twins, who project for 86 wins. The model has Cleveland in third place with 80 wins, Detroit in fourth with 79, and Chicago in last with 61 wins, second-worst in baseball.

The model breaks down the Royals’ chances at a post-season spot by giving them an 18.8 percent chance of winning the division - nearly identical with Cleveland - and a 12.4 percent chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot as they did last year. Minnesota was the division winner 49 percent of the time in their simulations.

The Dodgers have the best projection in baseball with a whopping 103 wins - a high number for simulations which tend to flatten out the more you run them - and a 100 percent chance of making the post-season. They are one of three teams in the National League projected to win at least 90 games - the Braves and Cubs being the others. No American League team projects to win that many games, with the Yankees leading the way with 89 wins and a 78 percent chance at a post-season spot.

The Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm or PECOTA was developed in 2002 by Nate Silver and introduced in Baseball Prospectus. It was named after former Royals infielder Bill Pecota and is considered one of the best projection models, using similarity scores for players to project future performance.

Last year, PECOTA projected the Royals to win just 71 games, and they exceeded that by 15. So perhaps the Royals can overperform the projections once again this year?

What do you project for a Royals win total this year?