Trade Profile: Dylan Cease, SP

Dylan Cease, SP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 29 (12/28/95)

2024 Traditional Stats: 33 G (33 GS), 189 1/3 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 14-11, 224 K, 65 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 118 ERA+, 29.4 K%, 8.9 BB%, 3.31 xERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.44 xFIP, 4.2 bWAR, 4.8 fWAR

Rundown

Dylan Cease has been one of the most durable starting pitchers of the 2020s, ranking seventh in the majors with 716 innings pitched. While he’s widely considered a top-10 pitcher, MLB Network’s Shredder controversially left him off their Top 10 Right Now list.

After three years in the Cubs’ minor league system, Cease was traded to the White Sox for Jose Quintana and made his MLB debut in 2019. He took his opportunity and ran with it. Since then, he’s rarely missed a start, leading the majors in games started in 2021, 2023, and 2024. His 2019 and 2020 seasons were unspectacular with a 5.00 ERA with an ERA+ of 91, partly due to the hitter-friendly environment in 2019. The shortened 2020 season likely hindered some of his progress, but he entered 2021 with a clean slate.

In 2021, Cease’s 3.91 ERA was solid, but his brilliant strikeout numbers stood out, with a 31.9% strikeout rate and a 34.6% whiff rate. More notably, he managed to reduce his home run rate from 1.8 and 1.9 per nine innings in 2019 and 2020 to 1.1 in 2021, a key improvement that created hope for a breakout season and potentially help the White Sox defend their American League Central title in 2022.

2022 saw him pitch at a Cy Young-caliber level, leading the AL in WAR and lowering his WHIP from 1.249 in 2021 to a strong 1.109. His sparkling 2.20 ERA ranked second in the AL, behind only Justin Verlander‘s 1.75 mark. Despite his standout season, Cease didn’t receive enough support from voters, and a 40-year-old Verlander ultimately won the award.

Cease’s 2023 performance (4.58 ERA, 1.418 WHIP) fell short of expectations, but his underlying metrics, including being in the top 25% of the league in strikeout percentage and whiff percentage, were enough for the Padres to sacrifice four of their top 10 prospects (per MLB Pipeline) in Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, Drew Thorpe.

After a challenging 2023 year, Cease rebounded in 2024 with a 3.47 ERA over a career-high 189 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate increased (moving from the 77th percentile in 2023 to the 89th), but more notably, his walk rate improved from 10.1% in 2023 to an almost average 8.5% in 2024. If this improvement is sustainable, it could signal growth not just in control, but in his overall game.

Cease primarily relies on a four-seamer and slider, with usage rates of 43.5% and 42.9%, respectively. His slider is truly elite, ranking sixth in all of MLB in run value (+19), behind elite company in Corbin Burnes‘ cutter (+20) and Cade Smith‘s fastball (+28). Among breaking balls (excluding Burnes’ and Emmanuel Clase‘s cutters since they aren’t breaking ball-esque), Cease’s slider trails only Chris Sale‘s slider.

Cease is now on the trade block, not because his talent has declined, but because the Padres are dealing with ownership issues. They need to spread their contractual commitments across the roster to avoid creating weaknesses. As a result, Cease is on the market and presents the opportunity for any team in need of an ace to trade for one right before the 2025 season.

Package

Cease is set to reach free agency after the 2025 season and will be owed $13.75 million next year. That’s a bargain for a pitcher of his caliber, and the Mets can easily afford it. Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated speculated that New York might move a “top 10-15 prospect” in their system in exchange for Cease. Ragazzo also noted that veteran Starling Marte could be a good fit for the Padres, especially after losing Jurickson Profar to the Braves in free agency. Marte would provide a replacement in the outfield.

Pitching-wise, it’s possible that Tylor Megill will be included in a potential trade, but José Buttó might also be a key piece if the Padres have interest, given his greater value. In any case, Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams should be untouchable, although if Stearns pursues Cease aggressively, one of them could be included. New York taking on both Marte and Cease’s contracts would likely reduce the overall package as well. Additionally, with the Padres possibly also trading away Luis Arraez, they may need a first baseman for the future like Ryan Clifford.

Mets Receive

• RHP Dylan Cease

Padres Receive

• 1B Ryan Clifford
• OF/DH Starling Marte + $19 million
• RHP Tylor Megill
• RHP Joander Suarez

Recommendation

Cease is unlikely to sign an extension before the season begins, but he will be an attractive free-agent option if he hits the market. For now, he’s an affordable option, but he’ll command a nine-figure deal if he reaches free agency. While David Stearns has been cautious about committing long-term to starting pitchers, Cease should be the exception. At just 29, he’s already a workhorse. This is the type of pitcher worth committing to. The Mets need to make a statement and finally get their ace.

He’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball already, no doubt, but if he can figure out how to keep on improving his control, he can become an even more dominant force.

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