Free Agent Profile: Scott Barlow, RP

Scott Barlow

Position: RP B/T: R/R
Age: 32 (12/18/1992)

2024 Traditional Stats: 63 G, 55 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 68 SO, 31 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 96 ERA+, 28.2 K%, 12.9 BB%, 4.17 xERA, 4.02 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 0.0 fWAR

Rundown

The 31-year-old Scott Barlow had two back-to-back elite seasons in 2021 and 2022, before some surface regression the last two seasons. Over that two-year period, Barlow emerged as one of the best bullpen arms in the league, posting ERAs of 2.42 and 2.18, respectively, over 74 1/3 innings in each season. However, that ERA figure ballooned to 4.37 in 2023 and 4.25 in 2024, respectively. This ultimately resulted in a late-season release from the Cleveland Guardians to end 2024. However, a deeper dive into those seasons show some encouraging developments and why teams should not give up on Barlow just yet.

When looking at the peripherals, Barlow was still inducing extremely soft contact (95th percentile average exit velocity in 2024 and 96th percentile average exit velocity in 2023) while also inducing whiffs (84th percentile or higher in 2023 and 2024) to go along with a ton of strikeouts. Each also occurred in his two best seasons in 2021 and 2022. The main differences, however, has been an increased walk rate and in 2024, specifically, a lower chase rate.

In 2021, Barlow’s walk rate was 9.1%, before dropping to 7.6% in 2022. However, that number sky rocketed in 2023 and 2024 to 11.4% and 12.9%, respectively. The rest of Barlow’s game has been strong the last two seasons, the only aspect that has been lacking, and has been instrumental in his overall regression, is the inability to throw strikes.

The biggest question mark surrounding the four-pitch pitcher in 2025 is his control. If he gets that third percentile walk rate back toward league average, and keeps the rest of his performances as is, he will be a terrific high-leverage reliever for any team.

Contract

Scott Barlow made $6.7 million in 2024. He was designated for assignment in September and subsequently released by Cleveland. He has been a free agent since then.

Fangraph’s crowd-sourced projection has Barlow signing a one-year deal worth $4 million. Regardless, whatever the right-handed reliever gets, it is not likely to be a significant figure, especially given his season was ended with a DFA.

Recommendation

The Mets made their most significance bullpen add just a few days ago as they brought in left-handed reliever A.J. Minter. With Minter, the Mets’ bullpen now sits at five “locks.” The last three spots are likely to be filled by a swingman type (Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, etc.) as well as two more traditional relievers. One of those is likely to be filled by a pitcher on the roster who thrives on camp, such as non-roster invitee or emerging prospect. The final spot should be filled by one more external, established arm.

Barlow, although with some risk, would finish out the Mets’ bullpen nicely. Worst-case scenario, Barlow struggles and he is a cheap DFA. Best case, he finds his 2021 or 2022 form and becomes a weapon in the later innings for the Mets on an extremely team-friendly deal.

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