ZiPS Projects Mets to Contend

Led by a near-elite offense, a competent starting rotation and a top-heavy bullpen, the Mets should contend for the division title in 2025, according to ZiPS projections released on FanGraphs Tuesday.

“The Mets look a lot like an 87-91 win team or so, with the possibility of adding a handful more wins with other moves this winter,” wrote Dan Szymborski, who created the projection system, which is in its 21st year of making predictions.

“I suspect the Braves and Phillies will have slightly better projections by the start of the season – unless New York pulls off another huge deal – but the Mets are right in the thick of it, and a division title is certainly a possibility.”

ZiPS likes the addition of Juan Soto (shocker) so much that it believes adding him may balance any potential regression from Francisco Lindor or Mark Vientos. It also likes the Jose Siri move and for now has Brett Baty starting and producing well at third base, with Vientos at first.

“By pairing Soto with Lindor, the Mets have a really good offense, one that may be just a skosh behind the elite ones,” Szymborski wrote.

It projects Soto for 33 homers, 100 RBIs and a .276/.426/.521 slash line. For his top near-age hitting comps, it lists Carl Yastrzemski, Albert Pujols and Mel Ott.

For starters, ZiPS foresees a solid-but-not-spectacular comeback season from Kodai Senga, projecting a 3.51 ERA and a 9-7 record over 24 starts and 138.1 innings. It likes Clay Holmes (3.66 ERA) – he has Zack Wheeler as one of his near-age comps – but sees downturns compared to last year for Sean Manaea (4.31 ERA) and David Peterson (4.09 ERA). It doesn’t care for the Frankie Montas signing, pegging him for a 4.65 ERA over 131.2 IP.

In the bullpen, ZiPS likes the four arms that head that unit (Edwin Díaz, Reed Garrett, Dedniel Núñez and José Buttó), but doesn’t like those who come after them, a group that includes Danny Young, Génesis Cabrera, Nick Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Chris Devenski.

“Getting a couple bullpen arms would benefit the Mets greatly, even though signing middle relievers wouldn’t be as sexy as landing Rōki Sasaki,” Szymborski wrote. “(Then again, maybe for the Mets it isn’t an either/or choice.)”

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