Trade Profile: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B

Position: 1B B/T: R/R

Age: 25 (03/16/1999)

2024 Traditional Stats: 697 PA, .323/.396/.544/.940, 199 H, 30 HR, 103 RBI, 72 BB, 96 SO

2024 Advanced Stats: 165 wRC+, 166 OPS+, 13.8% SO%, 10.3% BB%, .342 BABIP, .410 xwOBA, 5.5 fWAR, 6.2 bWAR

The New York Mets made the blockbuster move of the offseason, signing Juan Soto to a 15-year contract worth $765 million. Could another be on the way? Let’s discuss.

It is pretty clear the Mets are in the market for at least one more premier bat. Their lineup is in a good place at the moment, but with a championship in mind, they could use another threat in the middle of the order. Could that be Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman? Potentially, but let’s look at another name: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero was signed by the Toronto Blue Jays as an international free agent at 16-years-old in 2015. He flew up the rankings, quickly becoming one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Guerrero would go on to make his major league debut in April of 2019, playing in 123 games that season. Like so many at that stage of their careers, he showed flashes of greatness. Guerrero posted 15 home runs, 69 RBIs and a 106 wRC+ as a rookie across 514 plate appearances. A solid start to say the least.

The young infielder had a good 2020 campaign as well, slashing .262/.329/.462/.791 while playing in all 60 games. He helped the Blue Jays make the playoffs before losing to the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card series. Guerrero’s first standout season would come in 2021, however. He led the American League in runs, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, just to name a few categories. For the first time in his young career, he consistently showed off his power by hitting 48 home runs. Guerrero would finish second in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels.

He turned in a pair of productive years in 2022 and 2023, but they did not compare to what he did in 2021. In 2022, he was a first-time Gold Glove winner. In 2023, Guerrero helped the Blue Jays make the playoffs, losing to the Seattle Mariners in the Wild Card series at home. At the age of 24 entering the 2024 campaign, he had already established himself as one of the top hitters in the game. But, could he replicate what he did in 2021?

It was a weird season for Toronto, but not Guerrero individually. In 159 games, he hit .323 with 30 home runs and 103 RBIs. Guerrero finished with a 165 wRC+, narrowly behind the mark he reached in 2021 of 166. His 13.8% strikeout rate was also a career best. But, for the second consecutive season, the Blue Jays missed the playoffs as they won just 74 games and finished last in the American League East.

There is no question that Guerrero is an elite player, especially from an offensive point of view. He consistently puts the ball in play and does damage with his swing often. His eye at the plate is solid as well, owning a 10.3% walk rate a season ago. But with Guerrero entering the final year of his deal and an extension with the Blue Jays being far from complete, is a trade a possibility?

Package

Despite only having one year of team control left, it would take a pretty significant haul to get Guerrero out of Toronto. Luckily for the Mets, they have a few pieces, particularly at the top of their farm system, that could be moved in this deal.

Brett Baty and Luisangel Acuña are two names in particular to keep an eye on. Baty has gotten his opportunities at the big league level but has yet to capitalize. With Mark Vientos establishing himself as an everyday player, third base may no longer be an option for him with the Mets.

After an up-and-down minor league season, Acuña burst onto the scene in September. He made quite an impact for the Mets over a small sample size, slashing .308/.325/.641 with three home runs in 40 plate appearances, but is now the best time to move him with his value peaking?

Mets Receive:

• 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays Receive:

• 3B Brett Baty
• 1B/OF Ryan Clifford
• INF Luisangel Acuña
• RHP Tylor Megill

Recommendation

If Alonso decides to not return to the Mets via free agency, the team could respond in a few different ways. They could move Vientos to first base, allowing them to sign Bregman or trade for Nolan Arenado. They could also give another opportunity to Baty or Ronny Mauricio at third base, with Vientos moving over to first. But for me, the best option that could potentially be on the table if Alonso goes elsewhere would be to trade for Guerrero Jr.

It appears likely that the Blue Jays will be unable to sign their ascending star to an extension this offseason, which could lead to a potential trade being on the table. Guerrero is 25-years-old and entering the final year of his current contract, and he fits the profile of a player David Stearns and the Mets would be willing to sign long-term. The team could wait until next offseason to sign him as a free agent, but with expectations as high as they are, getting a player of his caliber could put the lineup over the top. It may just be worth it.

Guerrero has been a bit inconsistent at times, but all the tools are there. At his best, he is an MVP candidate. If the Mets believe he is a fit moving forward, it’s time to call the Blue Jays. If Alonso ends up leaving, adding Guerrero to the mix would be an excellent alternative.

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