Free Agent Profile: Kyle Gibson, SP

Kyle Gibson, SP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 37 (10/23/1987)

2024 Traditional Stats: 30 GS, 169 2/3 IP, 4.24 ERA, 1.350 WHIP, 8-8, 151 SO, 68 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 99 ERA+, 20.9 K%, 9.4 BB%, 4.90 xERA, 4.42 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, 1.5 fWAR

Rundown

Kyle Gibson might be underrated. Despite injuries being a common hurdle for pitchers, Gibson has only spent 74 days on the injured list—a remarkable statistic in today’s game. Half of those days were in 2016. Outside of his rookie season, Gibson’s lowest amount of innings pitched was 147 1/3 frames in that 2016 year.

While Gibson’s career 93 ERA+ reflects his consistently average production, the near 2,000 innings he pitched in the majors is a testament to his reliability. It’s a milestone that few reach, and he’s been recognized for it, earning approximately $65 million, according to Spotrac.

Gibson has struggled with consistent success, and after his three total seasons with a sub-4 ERA (2015, 2018, 2021), he fell back to earth each time, with his ERA climbing back into the 5.00 range. Still, his strong first half of 2021 with the Texas Rangers earned him an All-Star nod, showcasing his ability to perform at a high level, even if only in spurts.

Gibson’s skill set also lacks standout traits. He doesn’t strike many out and hasn’t offset that with a low walk rate. One area of relative strength is his ability to keep the ball on the ground, though his ground-ball percentage dropped from the 81st percentile in 2023 to the 60th percentile.

Gibson utilizes a diverse pitch arsenal featuring a sinker, cutter, sweeper, four-seamer, changeup, and curveball, all of which he mixes in semi-frequently. Before 2023, he relied heavily on more of a slider, using it about 17% of the time in 2022. However, he transitioned into more of a sweeper in 2023, which became his primary put-away pitch. In 2024, the sweeper accounted for 21% of his total pitches and generated an impressive 41.2% whiff rate. The sweeper plays off of his sinker (26.4% usage) and cutter (21.1%), forming the backbone of his arsenal. His four-seamer (13.2%), changeup (9.9%), and curveball (8.6%) round off Gibson’s arsenal.

That said, Gibson’s fastball has steadily lost much of its bite, dropping from 93.3 mph in 2019 to just 90.9 mph in 2024, ranking in the league’s 10th percentile. The decline is typical for a 37-year-old, yet Gibson’s ability to remain somewhat effective despite the loss in velocity highlights his resilience.

Gibson has carved out a role for himself as a reliable back-of-the-rotation arm, and he can do his job. Typically hovering in the 4.00-5.00 ERA range, Gibson has eaten innings up and kept his team in games without necessarily wowing them with dominance. At this stage of his career, his best days appear to be behind him. There’s little reason to anticipate any significant improvement.

Contract

The Cardinals declined a $12 million club option on Gibson, opting instead to pay a $1 million buyout. That’s not to say that he’s not a $12 million pitcher. With all of their veteran starters potentially on the chopping block, the Cardinals had little room for a $12 million option. No matter what some fans might say, Gibson was worth the $10 million the Orioles gave him in 2022 and the $13 million the Cardinals spent on him in 2023. This offseason, he should command a similar deal — another one-year deal in the $10-15 million range from a team in need of more innings.

Recommendation

Do the Mets truly need another depth pitcher? Maybe not, but you can never have too much pitching—depth is critical in a grueling 162 game season. Pitching, pitching, pitching! Nevertheless, Gibson doesn’t seem to fit the archetype of a David Stearns acquisition. He’s not a high-upside player, and he’s not any better than Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn, or Jose Butto. All of them are significantly younger and have better upside. Gibson, on the other hand, reliably pitches 30 games a season, something that all three of Megill, Blackburn, and Butto have never done. If the Mets do sign Gibson, it would come as a bit of a surprise. The team already has three slightly better arms vying for the fifth-starter spot. It wouldn’t be entirely out of left field, though.

Additionally, with the recent signing of Sean Manaea, it’s entirely plausible that the Mets could pause their search for pitching reinforcements. That said, they probably won’t. However, the more realistic avenues for actual improvement appear to be via trade—Luis Castillo, anyone?—or the unlikely scenario where Corbin Burnes lands in Queens at a bargain price.

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