Free Agent Profile: Kirby Yates, RP

Kirby Yates, RP

Position: RP, B/T: L/R
Player Data: Age: 37 (03/25/1987)

2024 Traditional Stats: 33 SV, 61.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 7-2, 85 SO, 28 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 340 ERA+, 35.9% K%, 11.8% BB%, 1.81 xERA, 2.50 FIP, 3.12 xFIP, 1.9 fWAR

Rundown

Debuting in 2014, Kirby Yates bounced around between the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angeles, putting up lopsided 5.27, 5.23 and 18.00 ERAs with each team. However, Yates succeeded as a reliever with the San Diego Padres in 2017, spending three full seasons with the team. His 2020 season was cut short after six games due to an elbow injury. With the Padres, Yates posted an impressive 2.55 ERA over 183.2 innings. He struck out 286 batters, walked 53 and saved 56 games.

In 2019, Yates earned his first All-Star appearance, leading MLB with 41 saves, and he finished ninth in Cy Young voting. He finished his 2019 campaign with a 1.19 ERA in 60.2 innings and struck out 101 batters while allowing 13 walks. His San Diego tenure ended after having surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He signed a one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays for 2021 but missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery during spring training.

Yates returned to the mound in 2022 with the Atlanta Braves, but it was another lost season as he missed more time with elbow inflammation after making his NL East debut late in the season. He appeared in only nine games, pitching to a 5.14 ERA. However, he turned a corner in 2023, his first full season since 2019, posting a 3.28 ERA through 60.1 innings. He struck out 80, walked 37, and held batters to a .165 batting average.

The reliever signed a one-year deal with the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers in the offseason and had his best season in 2024 since 2019. Named to his second All-Star Team, Yates posted a 1.17 ERA through 61.2 innings and made 33 saves, seventh best in baseball. He ranked in the 100th percentile in xERA (1.86) and xBA (.145), the 98th percentile in strikeout percentage (35.9%), the 97th percentile in pitching run value (24) and the 95th percentile in barrel percentage (4.1%).

A three-pitch reliever, Yates relies on a four-seamer, split-finger and slider (although he rarely uses the slider). He had the 15th-best run value on a pitch—his four-seamer, at 18—in 2024. For reference, Guardians reliever Cade Smith had the best run value on a pitch at 28. Paul Skenes‘ sinker had the 14th-best run value, also at 18. The fastball is dominant.

Of concern is Yates’ walk rate. He ranked in the eighth percentile in baseball in walk percentage (11.8%). In 2024, the league average walk percentage was 7.6%. While Yates has always struggled with control, he makes up for it with an elite strikeout percentage. League average in 2024 was 20.4%, while Yates’ strikeout percentage was 35.9%, as noted above. Also, the reliever will turn 38 at the start of the 2025 season. While he was dominant in 2024, and plenty of relievers have proven they can continue to pitch into their late-30s, it’s something to keep an eye on. The Mets had their fair share of pitchers with walk concerns last year, too.

Contract

Entering his age 38 season, MLB Trade Rumors predicts Yates will net a one-year contract worth $14 million. Primarily because of his age, it’s hard to think anyone will dish out a multi-year deal on Yates, regardless of his pristine 2024 season. However, incentives can play a role in whatever contract Yates signs. The reliever market may play out a bit before he signs.

Recommendation

The Mets enter 2025 with a bullpen consisting of Edwin Díaz, Reed Garrett, Dedniel Núñez, Danny Young and Sean Reid-Foley. Reports noted Nuñez was progressing well after a strained flexor tendon forced him to end his 2024 season early. Reid-Foley dealt with injury for most of 2024 but was stellar when in play. There are plenty of prospects and fringe 40-man options, too. All to say, the state of the Mets’ bullpen is in flux.

It’s unknown if Yates can replicate his wicked 2024 season, but he would be a fine addition. However, for a Mets bullpen that struggles with walks, it would be something to consider. Either way, Yates will be a reliable middle-to-late arm reliever for any contender’s bullpen.

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