Five Keys to Game Five for the Guardians

Cleveland will have to solve Tarik Skubal

The Guardians managed to win a tight game in Detroit to send the ALDS back to Cleveland for a winner-take-all.

Let’s take a look at some keys to game five:

1. Guess Right on Skubal’s Pitch Mix

FanGraphs Michael Rosen offered a great article analyzing why Skubal is so effective. To summarize, he has a unique delivery and offers the pitch-tunneling of a crafty lefty with the velocity of Paul Skenes. The Guardians, obviously, will have seen Skubal a mere five days earlier, so they need to rely on recent memory to give them a greater degree of comfort with what the presumptive AL Cy Young winner offers. In all likelihood, they will need to analyze Skubal’s plan of attack in game two and predict how he will approach things in game five. If Skubal starts flashing the curveball, the team should know that his approach is going to be different. If not, they need to lock in to the progressions they faced in game two and guess right on when they’re gonna see a fastball or a changeup, and where it’s likely to come. A couple correct, educated guesses might be enough.

2. Make Skubal Work

Skubal was not forced to work enough in his first outing. The Guardians need to do everything possible to get him out by the sixth inning so they can see more of the bullpen arms they have seen many times already in this series and try to take advantage accordingly. So, the aforementioned recent familiarity with Skubal needs to lead, at least, to the ability to take more pitches out of the zone and foul off more borderline pitches for the Guardians to maximize their chances to win this game. Skubal only threw first pitch strikes 50% of the time in game two, so there should be a concerted attempt to force him to get into the zone.

3. Vogt Needs to Utilize the Full Strength of Guardians’ Arms

Tim Herrin needs an extended break. His velocity is down and his control is wavering. If Vogt uses him in game five, it needs to be with two outs to get a left-handed hitter out. The plan, in my view should be something like Boyd for two, Williams for one, Sabrowski for two, Walters for one, Smith for one, Gaddis for one, and Clase for one. This plan gives the Guardians a chance to use Cantillo and Morgan if extras are needed and maximizes the utility of their players who have excellent fastball shape (something the Tiger offense has struggled against). It’s also possible to start Cantillo and see if Hinch will be forced into using his lefty mashers and bench early. It looks as if Kerry Carpenter will not be available for game five (sadly for him, no one wishes injury on an opponent), so that should help the Guardians in limiting Hinch’s ability to leveage his bench.

4. Feed on the Energy of the Cleveland Crowd

Guardians’ fans are desperate for their first World Series since 1948. The noise and excitement will be a force to be reckoned with and it can buouy the Cleveland players’ spirits in what is sure to another hard-fought game. Feed on that energy and seek to bring it to fever pitch.

5. Lefty Mashers Mash

If you knew on July 15th, 2024, your playoff future relied on beating Tarik Skubal in October, you’d acquire a Lane Thomas to try to hit him. You might also promote Jhonkensy Noel in June to give him a chance to hit major league lefties. Well, here we are, also with Jose Ramirez having had his best year ever against LHP and David Fry cementing himself as a lefty specialist. The lineup should be as ready for Skubal as any lineup can be, and to advance, the Guardians will need at least two of these lefty mashers to come through. Also, Steven Kwan and Brayan Rocchio’s playoff success will need to continue, as both have been absolutely crucial to the success the team has had so far.

I am thrilled that with the chips down, the Guardians found a way to get the series back to Cleveland and break their streak of losing eleven elimination games in the playoffs. Now, let’s solve the Skubal puzzle and go to New York.