Manaea vs. Nola: Breaking Down the Game 3 Pitching Matchup

Games 1 and 2 of the National League Division Series have been anything but boring. The Mets emerged victorious with a five-run eighth inning in Game 1, but the Phillies returned in a back-and-forth Game 2 and walked it off. With the series now tied 1-1, playoff baseball returns to Citi Field for the first time since 2022. Better yet, a NLDS returns to Citi Field for the first time since 2015! If the Mets can win the next two, they will clinch a spot in the NLCS at home, something they haven’t done since 2000.

Before that, it’s time to check out who will take the mound in a heated Game 3…

Sean Manaea

The Mets send southpaw Sean Manaea to the mound in Game 3 at Citi Field on Tuesday. Manaea has been an absolute revelation for the Mets after signing a two-year deal in the offseason. Not much was expected of him, or the pitching staff or the Mets to be honest, but he’s exceeded expectations with flying colors. Everything started to click when he tweaked his delivery after watching NL Cy Young-favorite Chris Sale pitch against the Mets (he went from a 33-degree arm angle to a 26-degree arm angle to a 23-degree arm angle in 2024). The rest is history.

Manaea got the nod Friday in the NL Wild Card Game 2 in Milwaukee, where he pitched five innings of two-run ball, striking out four and earning a no-decision. The southpaw had a career year in 2024, posting a 3.47 ERA and 3.75 xERA through 181 ⅔ innings of work. He threw a career-high number of pitches (2,996), struck out 184 batters, and owned a 1.08 WHIP.

His strikeout rate is slightly above league average (66th percentile), while he does dish out a fair amount of walks (41st percentile). While Manaea throws the sinker most of the time, his ground ball rate was at a career-low in 2024 (23rd percentile), and he’s been decent at limiting hard-hit contact (58th percentile).

While Manaea uses his sinker predominantly, he mixes in a sweeper, changeup, four-seamer, cutter and slider. His fastball use in 2024 was down from 56% in 2023 to just 11% in 2024 as he incorporated the sinker after barely using it in 2023. He has a .201 batting average against the sinker and an expected batting average of .248 on the pitch. Manaea has the fifth-best run value in baseball on the sinker at 15 (24th overall for all pitches). For context, Paul Skenes has the best sinker run value at 18.

On the Phillies, only platoon players Austin Hays and Johan Rojas have negative run values against the sinker. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Edmundo Sosa all have a run value of nine against the sinker and whopping batting averages of .364 and .365 against the pitch. While that seems to bode poorly for Manaea, he made three starts against the Phillies in 2024, all of different qualities. He’s 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA against Philadelphia in 2024 in 16 ⅔ innings pitched. Manaea struck out 15 batters and allowed ten runs (four homers) and two walks. One start in June was a blowout; the Phillies knocked Manaea out in the third inning after giving up six runs.

In his most recent against the Phillies in September, Manaea allowed three hits, three runs (two homers) and struck out six. He earned the win in that game. Nick Castellanos is Manaea’s biggest threat. The righty is 6-for-16 against him, with three home runs, one double and four strikeouts. Manaea has had a backward split this season. Righties are hitting a measly .190/.271/.313 off him, while lefties are slashing .248/.310/.428.

The run game will be key to the Phillies. Manaea’s allowed 13 stolen bases in 2024, the most of any Mets pitcher this year. He holds a negative three pitcher base advances prevented (the sum of advances prevented and outs added), second worst on the Mets (Adam Ottavino holds a negative eight). The Phillies have 12 players above league average in sprint speed (the average is 27 feet per second). Four of those players are in the top eight percentile. Meanwhile, the Mets only have seven players above league average and one in the top eight percentile (Luisangel Acuña).

Aaron Nola

The Phillies will turn to their longest-tenured rotation arm, Aaron Nola. Nola threw 199 ⅓ innings in 2024, posting a 3.57 ERA and 3.75 xERA. While it wasn’t a career year for Nola, he continued to be one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball, making all 33 of his starts and pitching his sixth complete game and fourth shutout. That shutout happened to come against the Mets on May 14. The righty finished the 2024 campaign with a 14-8 record, 197 strikeouts and a .247 BAA, his highest since 2016.

A strikeout pitcher for most of his career, Nola’s strikeout rate dipped in 2024 (58th percentile compared to 85th percentile in 2022). He throws a knuckle curve, four-seamer, sinker, changeup and cutter, and his chase rate is in the 86th percentile. While his fastball run value is near his career low (42nd percentile), his breaking run value stands in the 97th percentile. As a result, Nola’s expected batting average ranks him in just the 40th percentile, putting a cap on his up-and-down 2024 campaign.

Ironically, Nola’s best pitch in 2024 has been his four-seamer. Although his fastball run value is near his career low, he uses the pitch 28% of the time, has a batting average of .168 against it, and an expected batting average against of .195. While his knuckle curve receives the most movement (an average of 14 inches of break and 9.9 inches of vertical drop), his fastball gets movement, too. The four-seamer has an average of 14.6 inches of rise and 11.9 inches of tail, according to Baseball Savant. The mixture of break and movement between the curve (which ranks second in run value behind Zac Gallen‘s) and the fastball is Nola’s key to success on the mound.

Mark Vientos, Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens all have a negative run value against the curveball this year. Jesse Winker has a run value of seven against the curve and a .294 batting average against the pitch. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have a run value of five, each producing a .286 and .213 batting average against the pitch.

Nola hasn’t pitched since September 29, nine days ago from Tuesday. When he’s on four days of rest, hitters are limited to a line of .220/.266/.393. On five days rest, hitters are .237/.283/.393, off Nola. On six days of rest or greater, batters are slashing an absurd .416/.466/.675, off Nola. In nine postseason starts, Nola is 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA in 48 ⅔ innings pitched. He struck out 50 batters in the 2022 and 2023 postseason and allowed only nine walks.

Nola is no stranger to Citi Field and the New York Mets. As noted above, the righty threw his sixth complete game and fourth shutout of his career against the team at Citi Field on May 14. He allowed four hits, two to Starling Marte, one to Tyrone Taylor and one to Jeff McNeil, and struck out eight. His only other appearance against the Mets came on September 13 in Philadelphia. The Mets roughed him up, tagging Nola for six runs, six hits, two home runs (Francisco Alvarez and Brandon Nimmo) and two walks. However, Nola did strike out seven Mets.

Final Thoughts

Looking at everything as is, the numbers seem to feel pretty even. They may tilt the Phillies way because of Manaea’s inability to control the running game and higher walk rate than Nola’s. Most of the Mets’ power hitters struggle to hit the curve, Nola’s predominant pitch. That said, Alonso’s numbers against Nola are good (16 hits (five homers) in 50 at-bats, as are Starling Marte’s (.355 BA in 31 AB). The Phillies have excelled at hitting lefties in 2024, slashing .270/.342/.441 as a team. They have the third-highest OPS (.783) in baseball against southpaws in 2024.

The Mets, though, have held hitters in 2024 to an NL-best .230 BA (tied for second in baseball with the Cleveland Guardians). They’ve struck out more batters and allowed fewer home runs and hits than the Phillies this past season. While the Phillies won the season series 6-7, three Met losses were decided by one or two runs. The Phillies’ bullpen has been shaky at times, and the Mets have taken advantage of the moments, as seen in the first two games of the NLDS. The Mets also have the advantage of playing in front of the home crowd – a small advantage, but it might be an extra boost of confidence and adrenaline to get the players going.

Regardless, the Mets can punch their ticket to the NLCS at Citi Field with a win on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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