Fixing the Bottom of the Cleveland Guardians Order

What can Brennan, Noel, Bo Naylor and Rocchio do to help Cleveland win?

The Guardians have a bottom of the order problem. What can they do to fix it?

In 2024, Cleveland ranked 19th in MLB in offensive production from their 7-9 hitters at a 79 wRC+. Only the Braves (22nd) and Tigers (25th) had worse numbers, and neither is exactly considered a playoff juggernaut entering the tournament. So, what can the Guardians’ likely 7-9 hitters do to mitigate the issues that have reared their ugly heads for them during this past season? I’ve got some fatherly coaching advice for the four players most likely to hit there.

Advice for Bo Naylor - Take More Fastballs in the Outer-Upper Quadrant of the Zone

In 2023, 11% of the pitches Bo Naylor saw as a rookie were fastballs up and outside, either in or out of the strike zone. Naylor put up a .396 wOBA against fastballs up and away and out of the zone, and a .286 wOBA against fastballs up and on the outside part of the zone. In 2024, 18% of the pitches thrown to Bo have been fastballs up and outside, either in or out of the strike zone, with the 7% increase seen entirely in the upper, outside part of the strike zone. Bo has put up a wOBA of .181 on pitches up and outside out of the zone, and a wOBA of .102 on pitches up and outside in the zone.

It doesn’t take a genius to see that teams are getting Naylor out by having him chase fastballs up and away or miss fastballs up and outside in the zone, but now we have the numbers to back that up and explain a good portion of the decline in his 2024 performance. It’s not possible for Bo to simply not swing at fastballs, given that almost every pitcher has a fastball they can reliably throw for strikes. But, Bo needs to be constantly aware that the heater up and away is going to be the go-to for pitchers trying to pitch to him, especially when they desperately need to get a swing-and-miss. Naylor would be wise to attempt to spit on more of these pitches, thinking ahead to know that they will be on the way, and see if he can get a pitch closer to the middle and inside of the zone where he can more likely do damage.

Advice for Brayan Rocchio - Be The Most Patient Hitter in the Lineup

We are all intimately aware, I’m sure, of the fact that Brayan Rocchio does not hit the ball hard very often. He has a 22.3% hard-hit rate and 4% barrel rate. Out of 32 shortstops who have had more than 250 plate appearances in 2024, Rocchio ranks last in hard-hit rate. He does, however, have the 11th best walk-rate in that group. He only swings out of the zone at a 29% rate and, somehow, he has only seen 48% of pitches in the zone this season, while making contact at an 87% clip (a couple percentage points above the 85% average for major leaguers).

For whatever reasons, pitchers seem to think Rocchio will chase more than he does. They also likely know that if they can make a decent pitch in the zone, his contact is unlikely to hurt them so they are especially motivated to avoid the middle of the zone because why would you give this kind of hitter even a marginally increased chance at hurting you? He doesn’t hit fastballs or changeups well at all, so don’t risk hanging him a slider, just give him meat and potatoes and watch him bounce something to second base eventually.

While I hope a rigorous offseason strength-training program might help Rocchio at least a little bit, for now, Rocchio needs to be the most patient hitter on the Guardians’ roster. Take a breath, rookie. You’re in the playoffs. You don’t need to be a hero as long as you can play good defense. So, go up to that plate determined to see as many pitches as possible. Go up first pitch looking for a breaking ball toward the middle of the plate because those are the one kind of pitches that you have been able to do damage on this season. If you get anything else, take it, and let the at-bat develop. If you get behind in a count, rely on your contact ability to help you foul pitches off and avoid a strikeout when needed. But, remember that if a runner is on first, no contact is often preferable to bad contact. So, push all your chips in on trying to accumulate as many walks as possible, while being ready to strike if you get a hanging slider.

Advice for Will Brennan - Be the Revolution

Similarly, Will Brennan has a problem with contact quality with only a 32% hard-hit rate and a 4.6% barrel rate. To help mitigate this issue, Brennan has increased his pull and fly-ball rates both by around 5% this season, helping him increase his slugging from .356 to .388. Brennan’s issue remains that he is swinging outside of the zone too often (35%) and making contact with those pitches WAY too often (70%), producing weak contact outs.

Simply put, Brennan needs to lean hard into the pulled-fly-ball revolution that has helped the Guardians’ hitting corps climb from the bottom of MLB in 2023 into the middle of the pack for 2024 in home runs. He needs to go up to the plate looking for pitches in the middle and on the inner half of the zone that he can launch and pull to the best of his ability, and, as the at-bat develops, make adjustments to utilize his 84% contact rate skills when needed. He batted .500 in pinch-hit opportunities this season and actually is 2.31 runs above average in the clutch for his career. His coaches should remind him how good he has been when it really matters and encourage him that, regardless of what happened overall in 2024, he can offer useful value at the plate against RHP (109 wRC+ in 2024) in the ALDS if he avoids chasing and tries to pull some fly balls from the pitches he sees in the middle-to-inner half of the zone.

Advice for Jhonkensy Noel - Sit in the Middle and Inner Half of the Zone And Swing Away

There is only one thing pitchers do to handle Jhonkensy Noel - they throw him pitches on the outer half of the zone or outside and high or outside and low out of the zone. And, Noel has chased them at a 45% rate.

In watching Noel’s at-bats, I can see that he is an intellectual hitter. He has a plan and he has an idea of what other pitchers are doing, but he just can’t resist the idea that he could get a hanging breaking ball out over the plate, especially when he has two strikes. He wants to protect himself from those backdoor breakers, but all the data says he needs to try to spit on the outside pitches whenever possible, especially anything that he determines has the remotest chance of not getting in the zone.

Noel will be on the roster to swing as hard as he can and hit a bomb off a lefty pitcher (165 wRC+). Make opposing arms get pitches in the zone, my friend, and you will give Guardians fans the best Big Christmas gift we could imagine in a crucial situation at some point during this ALDS.

In summary, it’s very easy for me behind a computer to say what major league hitters should do against the best pitchers in the world. We should all realize there is a reason most major league hitters are not Jose Ramirez or Steven Kwan. However, I do think that, despite their lackluster performance this season, the four players likely to occupy the bottom three spots in the Guardians’ order have more than enough interesting tools as hitters to set them up to be unlikely heroes for them at some point next weekend.