Series Preview: Pirates at Guardians

One of the few teams below .500 left on the schedule

The Pirates and Guardians will play three games at Progressive Field this weekend as the Guardians look to try to get their season back on track against a struggling Pirates ballclub.

The Pirates enter the weekend at 62-71 with a -46 run differential, 27th in team wRC+ at 87, 25th in Defensive WAR at -38.5, 13th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at 3.8, 14th in Starting Pitcher FIP at 4.10, and 13th in relief pitcher FIP at 3.95.

The Guardians are 76-58 with a +68 run differential, 18th in team wRC+ at 98, 2nd in Defensive WAR at 14, 18th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -1.6, 28th in Starting Pitcher FIP at 4.80, and 1st in relief pitcher FIP at 3.35.

Matchups:

Game One: Bailey Falter, LHP (4.27 FIP) vs. Ben Lively, RHP (4.78 FIP), Friday, 7:10PM EST

Analysis: We need a Lively outing to keep our hopes from Faltering. The hitters to watch on the Pirates are Bryan Reynolds at 123 wRC+, Oneil Cruz at 117 wRC+, and Andrew McCutchen at 107 wRC+.

Game Two: L.L. Ortiz, RHP (4.20 FIP) vs. Matthew Boyd, LHP (4.19 FIP), Saturday, 6:10PM EST

Analysis: In each of these games, the Guardians need to make the starting pitcher work, get into the pen, and try to put the ball in play on a horrid Pirates defense. That’s the recipe for success. Matthew Boyd has been a breath of fresh air since his arrival here, let’s hope that continues.

Game Three: Mitch Keller, RHP (3.87 FIP) vs. Probably Joey Cantillo? IDK, LHP (7.19 FIP), Sunday, 1:40PM EST

Analysis: The Pirates are actually far worse at hitting RHP than LHP (84 wRC+ vs. 95 wRC+). I would, therefore, prefer to have a right-handed pitcher face them in this game. That takes out the whole Clippers’ rotation except for McKenzie who pitched Wednesday. Would the Guardians ever go get Austin Peterson or Aaron Davenport from Akron??? No, they would not. Maybe they’d go with a Connor Gillispe/Pedro Avila tagteam approach if that gets your gears going.

The Guardians miss Paul Skenes. They need to find a way to win this series.