Is Anything Wrong With Edwin Díaz’s Slider?

Edwin Díaz had been used sparsely in the month of August.

The Mets closer only pitched 6.1 innings, picking up a save in Colorado on August 7 and two wins in the series against the Orioles after two dramatic walk-off homers.

But memories run short in New York. And all anyone can talk about is the loss to the Padres to split the series in San Diego.

It came in an instant. One powerful swing from the National League Rookie of the Year favorite Jackson Merrill, and the Mets strong showing in California was soured.

The home run was the sixth allowed by Díaz this season—double the amount the closer allowed in his outstanding 2022 season. It also came off a 90-mile-an-hour slider that never broke, the fourth homer this year allowed via the pitch.

The slider was a dominant pitch for Díaz in ’22, but has now led to three dramatic losses this season. The first to Randy Arozarena on May 5 that led to a 7-6 loss, the second to Josh Bell on May 18, and the third to Merrill on August 25.

So the pitch must be broken then. Right? Well, the numbers don’t necessarily reflect that opinion. This season, Díaz’s slider has looked and moved almost identically to the ’22 version.

It’s dropping an identical 28.8 inches downward, and breaking 1.1 inches vertically (1.5 inches in ’22). Surprisingly, the ball is also spinning more this season. Díaz’s slider has a 2294 spin rate compared to a lower 2274 rate in ’22, stating that movement is not the issue with Díaz’s slider.

But why the sudden drop in swings in misses? The data shows the pitch is moving the same, and spinning negligibly more. It could be the velocity on the pitch, which entering today averaged 89.5 miles per hour. It’s noticeably down from the 90.8 miles per hour from ’22.

Yet, despite the drop in velocity of the pitch, another culprit is mostly in play: location. Díaz has struggled to bury his slider this season in two-strike counts, leading to more contact and more slug on his slider. The heat map indicator for the slider in ’24 primarily sits in the lower left quadrant on Baseball Savant, giving hitters a pitch to either drive or foul off in less-than-favorable counts.

The numbers also back up the heat charts. This season, batters make contact 41.9% of the time when chasing and 73.6% on in-zone pitches. Both numbers are drastically up from the ’22, where batters made contact 26.8% of the time when chasing and 63.2% when pitches were in the zone.

Location has been the factor. And when going back to look at the homers surrendered this season on the slider, it’s been sliders that either sit middle of the plate or in the lower section of the zone.

The pitch is moving the same. It still looks like a Díaz slider. But at times, the usually reliable Mets’ closer has let a couple hang. However, in simple put terms, Díaz hasn’t truly been a problem for the Mets.

The recent blown saves is still in everyone’s mind, but Díaz has been elite since returning from the injured list. Since June 13, Díaz has pitched to a 1.56 ERA, 12.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and has allowed the one homer to Merrill.

So while it’s easy to blame Díaz now and focus on the loss last Sunday, don’t forget that Díaz is still pitching like the top closer in the game. The slider is fine, and the Mets just need to give him more opportunities down the stretch to close out games.

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